Company Management
Luca Maestri - CFO |
Suhasini Chandramouli - Director of Investor Relations |
Tim Cook - CEO |
Analysts
Aaron Rakers - Wells Fargo Securities |
Amit Daryanani - Evercore ISI |
Ben Reitzes - Melius Research |
David Vogt - UBS |
Erik Woodring - Morgan Stanley |
Harsh Kumar - Piper Sandler |
Krish Sankar - TD Cowen |
Michael Ng - Goldman Sachs Group |
Richard Kramer - Arete Research |
Wamsi Mohan - Bank of America |
Operator
Certainly. We will go ahead and take our first question from Mike Ng of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Ng
Hey. Good afternoon, and thank you very much for the questions. I just have a question on iPhone storage and demand versus iCloud. As demand for storage grows, are you seeing a mix-shift towards higher storage iPhone models or are consumers mostly opting for the same because of increased uptake of iCloud+? What are some of the strategic and financial considerations here and trade-offs, as you think about the mix shift towards higher storage models versus iCloud penetration? Thanks.
Tim Cook
Michael, it's Tim. As you probably know, we started the line with the iPhone Pro Max at 256, and so we are seeing a different mix, if you will, this year than last year. Outside of that, not significant changes.
Michael Ng
Great. Thank you. And as a separate follow-up, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the market conditions on notebooks and desktops, and then any color that you can share regarding the timing of the Mac -- M3 MacBook Pros this year versus the M2 earlier in the calendar year? Thank you.
Tim Cook
Yeah. We're thrilled to have announced the M3 lineup and get the new MacBook Pro, the new iMac out there. We couldn't be more excited about it. We -- as Luca said, with the lineup that we've got and the compare issue that we don't have during Q1, we anticipate a significant acceleration in the Mac space for Q1. To just repeat a little bit about the circumstances of the performance last quarter, in the year-ago June quarter, we had a factory disruption that lasted several weeks. The pent-up demand that resulted from that was filled in the September quarter, and that made the September quarter not only a record, but a substantial record. And obviously, we're now comparing against that for '23 and so that, I wouldn't look at the negative 34% as representative of the underlying business performance. It's sort of the net of it.
Michael Ng
Excellent. That's very clear. Thank you, Tim.
Tim Cook
Yeah.
Suhasini Chandramouli
All right. Thanks, Mike. Can we have the next question, please?
Operator
Our next question is from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Aaron Rakers
Yeah. Thanks for taking the question and congratulations on the execution in the quarter. I'm curious, if you could help us characterize what the demand environment you're seeing in China looks like. How has the reception been to the iPhone 15? And kind of similar question to the prior one, how would you characterize the mix within China as you go through this current product cycle? And I have a follow-up.
Tim Cook
Yeah. If you look at how we did in Greater China for the quarter, we came in at, on a revenue basis, minus 2. But one thing to keep in mind here is that the FX impact was nearly 6 points. So we grew in constant currency. And underneath that, if you look at the different -- the categories, iPhone actually set a September quarter record in mainland China. And the -- what pulled down the performance was a combination, largely of Mac and iPad.
Services also grew during the quarter and the Mac and iPad suffered from the same issues that the company did with the compare issues to factory disruptions in Q3 that were filled subsequently in Q4 of '22. We had the -- in addition to that, we had the top four selling phones in urban China for last year, and I was -- I just took a trip over there and could not be more excited about the interactions I had with the customers and employees and others.
Aaron Rakers
Yeah. And then, as a quick follow-up, I'm curious as we move towards more of an inflationary component pricing environment. Luca, how do we think about that effect? How you're thinking about the gross margin at the product level, as maybe component pricing starts to turn, what's been clearly very favorable over the last several quarters to more of an inflationary environment? Thank you.
Luca Maestri
Well, as you've seen from our results in Q4 and the guidance for Q1, we're obviously experiencing very strong levels of gross margin. The 45.2% was a record for the September quarter. And then, the guidance for Q1 is obviously strong at 45% to 46%. Our gross margins are affected by multiple factors. Obviously, the commodity environment is one of them, as you mentioned. It's been a good environment in recent quarters.
But equally important is the mix of what we sell. And obviously, growth in Services for us is favorable, and that has helped our company gross margin. Foreign exchange, on the other hand, has been a drag for us for several quarters, given the strength of the dollar. We don't provide guidance past the December quarter, which is a very important one for us because it's the beginning of the product cycle for many products. And so we feel very good, very confident about, this coming year, and I think the gross margin guidance reflects that.
Aaron Rakers
Thank you.
Suhasini Chandramouli
Thanks, Aaron. Can we have the next question, please?
Operator
Our next question is from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Erik Woodring
Awesome. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Maybe if I start, Luca, I know that the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max are constrained today, but I think some of your comments suggests you should be back to supply demand balance before quarter end. So, I guess, my question is, does your December quarter revenue guidance account for any supply constraints? And if so, is there any way to kind of quantify how much supply would be limiting your December quarter revenue performance? And then, I have a follow-up. Thank you.
Luca Maestri
Yes. It's correct. We are constrained today on iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max. We're working very hard to get the product in the hands of all the customers that have ordered it. We expect, as of today, that we're going to be in supply demand balance by the end of the quarter. So the guidance reflects that.
Erik Woodring
Okay, very clear. Thanks. And then, maybe for you and Tim. You guys have been on the leading end of -- edge of innovation across hardware, software, silicon, services. And I'm sure there's plenty of technology in kind of longer-term projects that you're investing in. How should we think about your capital intensity as we look to fiscal year '24, just given over the last few years, CapEx as a percentage of revenue had been relatively low compared to the eight years prior? So should we expect a step-up or kind of similar capital intensity? And what are the more notable moving pieces, if any, that we should be thinking about? Thanks.
Luca Maestri
Well, the big areas of investment for us are tooling and equipment for manufacturing plants. Our investments in data centers and our investments in our own facilities, both corporate facilities and retail stores. And so, both for the tooling in our plants and our data center investments, we tend to have a bit of a hybrid model where we share some of the investments with our partners and suppliers and so maybe that's why you see sometimes a bit of variability. But over the last few years, we've made all the investments that we needed to make. And obviously, we're planning to make all the investments that we believe are needed and appropriate in order to continue to innovate.
Erik Woodring
Great. Thanks so much for the color, guys.
Suhasini Chandramouli
Thanks, Eric. Can we have the next question, please?
Operator
Our next question is from David Vogt with UBS. Please go ahead.
David Vogt
Great. Thanks, guys for taking my question. I know you covered China. I want to pivot to the US for a second. Obviously, iPhone and the business looks like it returned to growth in the quarter. But it's still relatively softer kind of where I thought it would be at this point in the cycle and some of the U.S. carriers obviously haven't been that particularly aggressive in promoting upgrades. So just wanted to kind of get a sense, first, what you're seeing from your partners in the U.S. kind of currently and going forward and what do you expect?
And then, second, Luca, on the margins, I mean, is it fair to say that the mix in Q1 from a product versus services dynamic is kind of the key driver of the better gross margin guide as a whole relative to, let's say, the December quarter? Or is there anything else? I know you mentioned there's a lot of moving pieces, but is that the primary driver of the uplift in the margin? Thanks.
Tim Cook
On the U.S. carriers and the U.S. business in general, it's really too early to call the iPhone cycle, particularly with the constraint around the Pro and the Pro Max and the U.S. tends to do quite well with those products. It's really too early to tell what the upgrade rates will be and what the switcher rates will be.
Luca Maestri
On the margin side, if I understood your question correctly about the December quarter guidance, keep in mind that actually December is the quarter where our products business is tends to be very heavy because of the holiday season. And so the services gross margins that are accretive to total company had an impact, but not as meaningful as other quarters during the year and so I think that the main drivers of the guidance that we provided are the fact that we are seeing improved costs, and improved mix on our -- on the product side of the business, partially offset by foreign exchange, which continues to be a drag, both sequentially and on a year-over-year basis.
David Vogt
Got it. So the weakness in iPad and Wearables are less of an impact on sort of the margin trajectory in the December quarter?
Luca Maestri
That's correct.
David Vogt
I guess?
Luca Maestri
That's correct.
David Vogt
Got it. Thanks, Luca.
Suhasini Chandramouli
All right. Thanks, David. We'll take our next question, please.
Operator
Our next question is from Amit Daryanani with Evercore. Please go ahead.
Amit Daryanani
Yeah. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I have two as well. I guess, first off, just the Services growth rate, there's a tremendous acceleration I think in September quarter, the 16% growth. And it sounds like it’s going to hold there pretty well into December. Can you just talk about what is driving this acceleration? Are there a couple of products that have just stepped up in a very meaningful way? Just maybe flush out like what is driving this acceleration because it's fairly notable compared to what you've been seeing in the last few quarters.
Luca Maestri
We had a really strong quarter across the border, Amit, because both geographically and from a product category standpoint, we saw very significant growth, I mentioned the records on a geographic basis. And from a category standpoint, literally, we set records in each one of the big categories. We had all-time record for App Store, for advertising, for cloud, video, AppleCare, payments and a September quarter record for Music. So it's hard to pick, one in particular because they all did well.
And really then, we step back and we think about why is it that our Services business is doing well and it's because we have an installed base of customers that continues to grow at a very nice space and the engagement in our ecosystem continues to grow. We have more transacting accounts, we have more paid accounts, we have more subscriptions on the platform and we continue to add. We continue to add content and features. We're adding a lot of content on TV+, new games on Apple Arcade, new features, new storage plans for iCloud. So it's a combination of all these things and the fact that the engagement in the ecosystem is improving, and therefore, it benefits every service category.
Amit Daryanani
Got it. That's really helpful. And then, maybe if I could ask you about Vision Pro, which I believe is supposed to be launched more broadly sometime in 2024, in the early part of the year. I'm curious how different do you think the launch and the consumer education of this product or a new category will be versus other things like AirPods or Apple Watch that you've done. And then, perhaps any themes I think that's set out to you from the developers that have been able to use this and the developer labs, what feedback have you gotten from them?
Tim Cook
Yeah. That's a great question. There is a tremendous amount of excitement around the Vision Pro and we're -- we've been very happy to share it with developers, and we have developer labs set up in different parts of the world so that they can actually get their hands on it and are working on apps and I've been fortunate enough to see a number of those. And there is some real blow away kinds of things that are coming out, and so that all looks good.
To answer your question about is it similar to AirPods or Apple Watch, I would say, no. There's never been a product like the Vision Pro. And so, we're purposely bringing it out in our stores only, so we can really put a great deal of attention on the last mile of it. We'll be offering demos in the stores and it will be very different process than the -- a normal grab-and-go kind of process.
Amit Daryanani
Perfect. Thank you.
Suhasini Chandramouli
Thanks, Amit. We'll take the next question, please.
Operator
Our next question is from Harsh Kumar with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Harsh Kumar
Yeah. Hey, thanks for the question and congratulations on tremendous execution in a very tough macro. Actually, Tim, the last question is a perfect segue here, given what you are doing with your Vision Pro. So lots of companies are experimenting with generative AI. I'm curious about what kind of efforts you have. I'm sure there are segues into Pro Vision that you have, but I was curious about if you can give us a glimpse on how you might be able to monetize some of these efforts of generative AI.
Tim Cook
If you kind of zoom out and look at what we've done on AI and machine learning and how we've used it, we view AI and machine learning as fundamental technologies, and they're integral to virtually every product that we ship. And so just recently, when we shipped iOS 17, it had features like Personal Voice and Live Voicemail. AI is at the heart of these features. And then, you can go all the way to then lifesaving features on the launch end of phone like fall detection, crash detection, ECG on the watch. These would not be possible without AI.
And so, we don't label them as such, if you will. We label them as to what their consumer benefit is. But at the fundamental technology behind it is AI and machine learning. In terms of generative AI, we have -- obviously, we have work going on. I'm not going to get into details about what it is, because -- as you know, we don't -- we really don't do that. But you can bet that we're investing, we're investing quite a bit, we're going to do it responsibly and it will -- you will see product advancements over time that where the -- those technologies are at the heart of them.
Harsh Kumar
Thanks, Tim. Very clear. And for my follow-up, I had a philosophical question. So, you guys always try to provide the best experience for consumers. To that end, I think, over the last decade you in-sourced a lot of important chips in your phones, in your Macs, iPads, so on and so forth. And that was, I think, a function that ARM wasn't around in the industry from a merchant angle. But now, we see these the silicon guys, the chip guys moving to ARM architecture.
So my question to you is, has the move to internal silicon been economically profitable proposition for Apple? Or is it -- or is it a strategic one, where you simply need to own this and it's vital to your products for the consumer experience or maybe there's a path back to chip vendors at some point in time?
Tim Cook
It's really enabled us to build products that we could not build without doing it ourselves. And as you know, we like to own the primary technologies in the products that we ship and arguably, the silicon is at the heart of the primary technologies, and so, no, I don't see going back. I am happier today than I was yesterday, than I was last week that we made the transition that we've made, and I see that benefit every day of it.
Harsh Kumar
Thanks, Tim.
Tim Cook
Yeah.
Suhasini Chandramouli
Thank you, Harsh. We'll take the next question, please.
Operator
Our next question is from Wamsi Mohan from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Wamsi Mohan
Yes. Thank you so much. Tim, over the last decade, pretty much you've gained a lot of share in China. As you look, your -- some of the domestic players are starting to re-emerge, especially in the high-end phone space. I know you touched on China. But how would you see Apple's positioning and opportunity for continued share gains, particularly in China? And how was the linearity in China from a demand perspective? And I have a follow-up, please.
Tim Cook
In the September quarter, we set an iPhone record -- revenue record in China and we're very proud of that and we obviously grew. The market predictions that I've seen, we've had the market contracting. And so if that's -- if those are correct, then we gained share last quarter. And so we are very proud of that, I don't know what every quarter will hold. And obviously, we just give a bit of color on the current quarter. But over the long term, I view China as an incredibly important market and I'm very optimistic about it.
Wamsi Mohan
Okay. Thanks, Tim. And as a follow-up, you obviously had a great Services quarter and part of your Services business has these licensing relationships with research partners, where you serve a very important distribution function for them. Can you talk about how you think about these relationships and potentially some of the options maybe Apple has to mitigate some of the risks, given some of the scrutiny on with some of the research partners? Thank you so much.
Luca Maestri
They are important relationships. And as you know, we don't get into our commercial relationships in the call. I see them as important and we make decisions that are in the best interest of our users or what we feel is in the best interest of our users. And that's kind of what we've done in the past and how we've -- how we'll run the show in the future as well.
Wamsi Mohan
Okay. Thank you, Tim.
Suhasini Chandramouli
Thank you, Wamsi. Can we have the next question, please.
Operator
Our next question comes from Krish Sankar with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Krish Sankar
Yeah. Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I had two of them too. First one, Luca, thanks for the color on gross margin. And when I look at it over the last four quarters, even if on a year-over-year basis revenue declined, the gross margins have improved. And I understand Services definitely helped. I'm just kind of curious, when you look at on a go forward basis, are most of the big step functions and cost reductions like the Mac Silicon conversion, et cetera, that are done or is there more room for margin expansion from here? And then, I had a follow-up.
Luca Maestri
Well, on the product side, as you know, we -- when we launch new products, the cost structures of those products tend to be higher than the products that they replace. It happens because we are always adding new technologies, new features, and then, we worked through the cost curve over the lifecycle of the product and we tend to get benefits as time goes by. The guidance that we provided for December reflects all that and so we're starting from a better position than a year ago or than, in the past, in general.
There are other factors that play a role. For example, the mix of products that we sell. Not every product has the same gross margin profile, and so our guidance, our results are reflective of that. And also, within a specific product category, a lot depends on the kind of models that we sell because they have different margin profiles. I think one of the things that we've done well over the last few years is to offer more affordability solutions to our customers in the form of instalment plans, trading options, and spend -- low-cost financing in general.
And what that has accomplished is reduced the affordability threshold for our customers and therefore, they can, buy at the top of our product ranges. That has been a big factor in the reason for our margin expansion. We don't provide guidance or color past the current quarter because there's so many different variables that affect gross margins, but we obviously feel very good about the trajectory that we've had in 2023 and now, the guidance that we provide for the beginning of our fiscal '24. And we need some of these things because, obviously, their foreign exchange environment has been difficult and has been a bit of a drag for us. But net-net, we're very pleased where we are.
Krish Sankar
Got it. Thanks for that, Luca. And then, I have a follow-up for Tim. Obviously, you're seeing amazing momentum in India. I'm just kind of curious how do you look at -- when you look at the India growth opportunity on these hardware units, how to think about ASP relative to that versus like the rest of the geographies? And is there a way to compare or contrast India, growth momentum versus China maybe a decade ago or so at the same point in the rollout of, the share gains in that geography?
Tim Cook
Yeah. It's a great question. We had an all-time revenue record in India. We grew very strong double-digits. It's an incredibly exciting market for us and a major focus of ours. We have low share in a large market, and so it would seem there's a lot of headroom there. The ASPs, I haven't looked at them most recently, but I'm sure that they're lower than the worldwide. But that doesn't bother us at all. It just -- and in terms of the similarity, I would say, each country has its own journey.
And I wouldn't want to play the comparison game. But we see an extraordinary market, a lot of people moving into the middle class, distribution is getting better, lots of positives. We put two retail stores there, as you know. They're doing better than we anticipated. It's still early going, but they're off to a good start and I couldn't be happier with how things are going at the moment.
Krish Sankar
Thanks, Tim.
Suhasini Chandramouli
Thank you, Krish. We'll now take our next question, please.
Operator
Our next question is from Ben Reitzes with Melius Research. Please go ahead.
Ben Reitzes
Hey. Thanks a lot. I appreciate the question. Tim, I appreciate all your commentary around China. It was great to kind of hear about the growth potential there, your optimism. I wanted to also ask about the supply chain and where is your priority? Do you have a priority to diversify your supply chain? How do you feel about Apple's supply chain around the world? And in particular, what do you think about further investments in the U.S. as well?
Tim Cook
Our supply chain is truly global, and so we're investing all over the world, including in the United States, we were very focused on advanced manufacturing for the U.S. and have worked on a number of different projects in the U.S., whether that's our venture with Corning on the glass or Face ID module or semiconductors. And so all of these are our advanced manufacturing and I think exactly the kinds of things that the U.S. would be and are very, very good at. We also invested in other regions of the world and we're continually optimizing the chain. And so we -- the moment we learned something that didn't work exactly right, we are tweaking it. And so we're going to continue to do that. But at the end of day, it will still be a global supply chain.
Ben Reitzes
Got it. Thanks.
Tim Cook
Yeah.
Ben Reitzes
Next one for Luca. Just really quick on the extra week dynamic. There was also last year an issue with the iPhone production, where there was the COVID lockdowns in China. Is it possible to give some color around what that -- I guess, having a normalized supply chain somewhat this year, what that benefit is this year and maybe contrast that with the 7 point hit from the extra week? Thanks a lot.
Luca Maestri
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Ben. I mentioned during the prepared remarks the extra week is 7 points of revenue. We did have disruptions, supply disruptions last year on the phone, on the 14 Pro and Pro Max in the December quarter a year ago. And when we normalize for those two factors, and I said it during the call, we still expect to grow on iPhone. So you take into account the, the loss of the extra week, you compare it with the supply disruptions that are not going to repeat, hopefully, this year. And when you normalize for those two things, we still expect to grow on iPhone.
Ben Reitzes
Thanks a lot everybody. Appreciate it, Luca.
Suhasini Chandramouli
Thank you, Ben. And we'll take the last question now.
Operator
Our last question comes from Richard Kramer with Arete Research. Please go ahead.
Richard Kramer
Thank you very much. Tim, first off, if we look over the past two years, Apple sales are about $18 billion higher and R&D is up by about 8% -- $8 billion or over a third higher. Can you give us a sense of some of the main components or drivers behind that increase in innovation spend? Is it Apple Silicon, is it new products like Vision Pro or is it content to support new services? I think that's one of the top questions investors have. Thanks.
Tim Cook
Sure. It's a number of things, Richard. It's the -- some things I can't talk about, its Vision Pro, it's AI and ML, it's the silicon investment that we're making, the transition with the Mac and other silicon. It's sort of all of those things and -- but I think you would find that the R&D expenditure in the aggregate looks very competitive versus others.
Luca Maestri
And I would add, Richard, on this front. Some of the investments that we're making in R&D are also one of the drivers for the gross margin expansion. So I think it's important to think about it that way.
Richard Kramer
That's great. And Luca, you mentioned -- or Tim mentioned college students choosing Mac. Then, you mentioned the record Services revenue. What other metrics do you think you could provide to help investors understand how Apple measures and increases customer lifetime value, especially when we see a lot of users entering the ecosystem with a relatively lower-priced products or even refurbished devices? So you're growing your ecosystem, but how do you think about growing customer lifetime value over the long run?
Luca Maestri
Well, some of the metrics that I mentioned before, obviously, we look at the installed base of active devices. We see, we want to make sure that, the customers that we acquire remain with us and so we have good visibility over that, and we pay a lot of attention to the behavior of the installed base, both by product and by geography. And then, we look at the daily engagement in the ecosystem. So that's why we pay a lot of attention on things like transacting accounts, paid accounts, we want to see if, in fact, we are able to move our customers from a free model to a paid model over time. That's obviously very, very important for us.
And so, on this, we keep track of all these things and that's -- and then what we do, because I think it's really important is that over time, we add new services and that, obviously, like, for example, the progress that we've made in payments in recent years, very, very important because we've attracted more and more people that are actually now using additional features on our devices and we are able to monetize that, right.
So we take all that into account, we understand what happens when a customer joins us, when they buy a primary device versus a used device, we understand their behavior, in different markets and so on. So we have, I think, pretty good visibility. And I think the progress that we're making in Services, we did $85 billion in the last 12 months. It's -- that's a size of a Fortune 50 and significantly bigger than it was just a couple of years ago.
Richard Kramer
Absolutely. Thanks very much.
Suhasini Chandramouli
Thank you, Richard. A replay of today's call will be available for two weeks on Apple Podcasts, as a webcast on apple.com/investor and via telephone. The number for the telephone replay is 866-583-1035. Please enter confirmation code 0106234 followed by the pound sign. These replays will be available by approximately 5 PM Pacific Time today. Members of the press with additional questions can contact Josh Rosenstock at 408-862-1142 and financial analysts can contact me, Suhasini Chandramouli, with additional questions at 408-974-3123. Thank you again for joining us today.
Operator
Once again, this does conclude today's conference. We do appreciate your participation.
(Tips: This transcript is converted by recording, we will do our best, but cannot fully guarantee the accuracy of the conversation, it is for reference only. )
公司管理
Luca Maestri-首席財務官 |
蘇哈西尼·錢德拉穆利——投資者關係總監 |
蒂姆·庫克-首席執行官 |
分析師
Aaron Rakers-富國銀行證券 |
Amit Daryanani-Evercore ISI |
Ben Reitzes-梅利烏斯研究 |
大衛沃格特-瑞銀 |
Erik Woodring-摩根士丹利 |
Harsh Kumar——派珀·桑德勒 |
Krish Sankar-TD Cowen |
Michael Ng-高盛集團 |
理查德·克萊默——Arete Researc |
Wamsi Mohan-美國銀行 |
操作員
當然。我們將繼續回答高盛的Mike Ng的第一個問題。請繼續。
邁克爾·吳先生
嘿。下午好,非常感謝你的提問。我只是想問一下iPhone的存儲空間和需求與iCloud的對比。隨着存儲需求的增長,你看到的是向更高存儲空間的iPhone機型的混合轉變,還是因爲iCloud+的使用量增加,消費者大多選擇同樣的機型?當你考慮向更高的存儲模式而不是iCloud滲透率的組合轉變時,這裏有哪些戰略和財務考慮因素以及權衡利弊?謝謝。
蒂姆·庫克
邁克爾,是蒂姆。你可能知道,我們的iPhone Pro Max一開始是256臺,因此,如果你願意的話,今年我們看到的組合與去年有所不同。除此之外,沒有重大變化。
邁克爾·吳先生
太棒了。謝謝。作爲單獨的後續行動,我想知道你能否稍微談談筆記本電腦和臺式機的市場狀況,然後你能分享一下關於Mac上市時機的顏色——今年的M3 MacBook Pro對比本日曆年早些時候的M2?謝謝。
蒂姆·庫克
是啊。我們很高興宣佈了M3陣容並推出了新款MacBook Pro,即全新 iMac。我們對此再興奮不過了。我們——正如盧卡所說,鑑於我們擁有的陣容以及我們在第一季度沒有遇到的比較問題,我們預計第一季度Mac領域將大幅加速。再重複一下上個季度的業績情況,在去年同期的6月季度,我們的工廠中斷持續了幾個星期。由此產生的被壓抑的需求在9月的季度得到了滿足,這使9月的季度不僅創下歷史新高,而且創下了可觀的記錄。顯然,我們現在正在與23年進行比較,因此,我不會將負34%視爲基礎業務業績的代表。這有點像它的網絡。
邁克爾·吳先生
太棒了。這很明顯。謝謝,蒂姆。
蒂姆·庫克
是啊。
Suhasini Chandramouli
好吧。謝謝,邁克。請問我們下一個問題嗎?
操作員
我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的亞倫·雷克斯。請繼續。
亞倫·雷克斯
是啊。感謝您提問,並祝賀本季度被處決。我很好奇,你能否幫助我們描述你在中國看到的需求環境是什麼樣子。iPhone 15 的接收情況如何?還有一個與前一個問題相似的問題,在當前的產品週期中,你會如何描述中國內部的混合?我還有後續行動。
蒂姆·庫克
是的。如果你看看我們本季度在大中華區的表現,按收入計算,我們的得分爲負2。但是這裏要記住的一件事是,外匯的影響接近6個百分點。因此,我們以固定貨幣增長。在此之下,如果你看一下不同的類別,iPhone實際上在中國大陸創下了9月份的季度紀錄。而且 —— 降低性能的是組合,主要是Mac和iPad的組合。
本季度服務業也有所增長,Mac和iPad遇到的問題與該公司在第三季度出現的工廠中斷問題相同,後者隨後在22年第四季度得到解決。我們有 —— 除此之外,去年中國城市手機銷量排名前四,我也是 —— 我剛剛去那裏旅行,與客戶、員工和其他人的互動再興奮不過了。
亞倫·雷克斯
是啊。然後,作爲一個簡短的後續行動,我很好奇我們正朝着更具通貨膨脹性的成分定價環境邁進。Luca,我們如何看待這種影響?你如何看待產品層面的毛利率,因爲組件定價可能開始轉變,在過去的幾個季度中,哪些顯然非常有利於通貨膨脹的環境?謝謝。
盧卡·馬埃斯特里
好吧,正如你從我們第四季度的業績和第一季度的指導中看到的那樣,我們的毛利率顯然非常強勁。45.2%創下了9月季度的紀錄。然後,第一季度的預期顯然很強勁,爲45%至46%。我們的毛利率受到多種因素的影響。顯然,正如你所提到的,大宗商品環境就是其中之一。最近幾個季度的環境一直很好。
但同樣重要的是我們銷售產品的組合。顯然,服務業的增長對我們來說是有利的,這提高了我們公司的毛利率。另一方面,鑑於美元的走強,外匯拖累了幾個季度。我們不提供12月季度以後的指導,這對我們來說是一個非常重要的指導方針,因爲這是許多產品產品週期的開始。因此,我們對來年感覺非常好,也非常有信心,我認爲毛利率指引反映了這一點。
亞倫·雷克斯
謝謝。
Suhasini Chandramouli
謝謝,亞倫。請問我們下一個問題嗎?
操作員
我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的埃裏克·伍德林。請繼續。
埃裏克·伍德林
太棒了。非常感謝你回答我的問題。也許如果我一開始,盧卡,我知道iPhone 15 Pro和Pro Max今天受到限制,但我認爲你的一些評論表明,你應該在季度末之前恢復供需平衡。那麼,我猜,我的問題是,你的12月季度收入指引是否考慮了供應限制?如果是這樣,有沒有辦法量化供應量化有多少供應會限制你12月季度的收入表現?然後,我有後續行動。謝謝。
盧卡·馬埃斯特里
是的。這是正確的。今天,我們在iPhone 15 Pro和iPhone 15 Pro Max上受到限制。我們正在努力將產品交到所有訂購該產品的客戶手中。我們預計,截至今天,到本季度末,我們將處於供應需求平衡狀態。因此,該指南反映了這一點。
埃裏克·伍德林
好吧,很清楚。謝謝。然後,也許是爲了你和蒂姆。你們一直處於硬件、軟件、芯片和服務領域的創新前沿。而且我敢肯定,你正在投資的長期項目中有很多技術。展望24財年,我們應該如何看待你的資本密集度,就在過去幾年中,資本支出佔收入的百分比與八年前相比相對較低?那麼,我們應該指望資本密集度上升還是類似的資本密集度呢?那麼,我們應該考慮哪些更引人注目的動人作品(如果有的話)?謝謝。
盧卡·馬埃斯特里
好吧,對我們來說,最大的投資領域是製造工廠的工具和設備。我們對數據中心的投資以及對自有設施(包括企業設施和零售商店)的投資。因此,無論是工廠中的工具還是我們的數據中心投資,我們都傾向於採用混合模式,即與合作伙伴和供應商共享部分投資,因此也許這就是爲什麼有時你會看到一些可變性的原因。但是在過去的幾年中,我們已經進行了所有需要的投資。顯然,我們正計劃進行我們認爲必要和適當的所有投資,以繼續創新。
埃裏克·伍德林
太棒了。非常感謝你的顏色,夥計們。
Suhasini Chandramouli
謝謝,埃裏克。請問我們下一個問題嗎?
操作員
我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的大衛·沃格特。請繼續。
大衛沃格特
太棒了。謝謝,各位回答我的問題。我知道你報道了中國。我想暫時轉向美國。顯然,iPhone及其業務似乎在本季度恢復了增長。但是,在週期的這個時刻,它仍然相對較爲疲軟,而且一些美國航空公司在推動升級方面顯然並沒有特別積極地採取行動。因此,首先想了解一下,你從美國的合作伙伴那裏看到了什麼,以及你對未來的期望是什麼?
然後,其次,盧卡,在利潤率方面,我的意思是,與12月的季度相比,第一季度產品與服務動態的組合是整體毛利率指數改善的關鍵驅動力嗎?或者還有別的嗎?我知道你提到有很多動作部分,但這是利潤率上升的主要驅動力嗎?謝謝。
蒂姆·庫克
就美國運營商和整個美國企業而言,現在稱iPhone週期還爲時過早,尤其是在Pro和Pro Max受到限制的情況下,美國往往在這些產品上表現不錯。現在判斷升級率將是多少,切換器費率將是多少,還爲時過早。
盧卡·馬埃斯特里
在利潤率方面,如果我正確理解了你對12月季度指引的問題,請記住,由於假日季節,12月是我們的產品業務往往非常繁忙的季度。因此,增加整個公司的服務毛利率產生了影響,但沒有今年其他季度那麼有意義,因此,我認爲,我們提供的指導方針的主要驅動因素是,我們在業務產品方面看到了成本的提高和結構的改善,但部分被外匯所抵消,外匯仍然是連續和同比的拖累。
大衛沃格特
明白了。那麼,iPad和可穿戴設備的疲軟對12月季度的利潤軌跡的影響較小嗎?
盧卡·馬埃斯特里
這是正確的。
大衛沃格特
我猜?
盧卡·馬埃斯特里
這是正確的。
大衛沃格特
明白了。謝謝,盧卡。
Suhasini Chandramouli
好吧。謝謝,大衛。請回答下一個問題。
操作員
我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。請繼續。
阿米特·達里亞納尼
是啊。下午好。謝謝你回答我的問題。我也有兩個。我猜,首先,僅僅是服務業的增長率,我認爲9月份的季度將大幅加速,增長了16%。而且聽起來好像要持續到12月。你能不能談談是什麼在推動這種加速?有幾款產品剛剛以非常有意義的方式上線了嗎?也許就像推動這種加速一樣,衝出去,因爲與你在過去幾個季度中看到的相比,它相當引人注目。
盧卡·馬埃斯特里
阿米特,我們的跨境季度表現非常強勁,因爲我提到了地域和產品類別的記錄,我們看到了非常顯著的增長。從類別的角度來看,從字面上看,我們在每個大類別中都創下了記錄。我們在App Store、廣告、雲端、視頻、AppleCare、支付方面創下了歷史記錄,音樂也創下了9月份的季度紀錄。因此,很難選擇,特別是因爲它們都表現不錯。
實際上,我們退後一步,思考爲什麼我們的服務業務表現良好,這是因爲我們的客戶群在非常好的領域持續增長,並且對我們生態系統的參與度持續增長。我們有更多的交易賬戶,我們有更多的付費賬戶,我們在平台上有更多的訂閱,我們將繼續增加。我們將繼續添加內容和功能。我們將在 TV+ 上添加大量內容、在 Apple Arcade 上添加新遊戲、新功能、iCloud 的新存儲套餐。因此,這是所有這些因素的結合,以及生態系統中的參與度正在提高這一事實,因此,它使每個服務類別都受益。
阿米特·達里亞納尼
明白了。這真的很有幫助。然後,也許我能問你關於Vision Pro的問題,我相信它應該在2024年的某個時候,也就是今年年初更廣泛地推出。我很好奇你認爲這款產品或新類別的發佈和消費者教育與你所做的其他產品(例如AirPods或Apple Watch)會有何不同。然後,也許我認爲任何能夠使用它的開發者和開發者實驗室向你提出的主題,你從他們那裏得到了什麼反饋?
蒂姆·庫克
是啊。這是一個很好的問題。Vision Pro 讓人興奮不已,我們很高興能與開發者分享,我們在世界各地設立了開發者實驗室,這樣他們就可以實際使用它並正在開發應用程序,我很幸運地看到了其中的一些。還有一些讓人大吃一驚的東西正在問世,所以看起來一切都不錯。
要回答你關於它與 AirPods 還是 Apple Watch 相似的問題,我想說,不。從來沒有像Vision Pro這樣的產品。因此,我們特意只在門店裏推出,這樣我們就可以真正把注意力放在最後一英里上。我們將在商店裏提供演示,這將與普通的 “隨拿即走” 流程截然不同。
阿米特·達里亞納尼
完美。謝謝。
Suhasini Chandramouli
謝謝,阿米特。請回答下一個問題。
操作員
我們的下一個問題來自 Harsh Kumar 和 Piper Sandler。請繼續。
哈什·庫馬爾
是啊。嘿,謝謝你的提問,恭喜你在非常艱難的宏觀中表現出色。實際上,蒂姆,考慮到你在使用Vision Pro所做的事情,最後一個問題在這裏是一個完美的答案。因此,許多公司都在嘗試生成式人工智能。我很好奇你做了什麼樣的努力。我敢肯定,你在Pro Vision方面有一些後續行動,但我很好奇你能否讓我們一睹如何通過生成式人工智能的某些努力獲利。
蒂姆·庫克
如果你放大視野,看看我們在人工智能和機器學習方面做了什麼以及我們如何使用它,我們就會將人工智能和機器學習視爲基礎技術,它們幾乎是我們交付的每款產品不可或缺的一部分。因此,就在最近,當我們發佈iOS 17時,它具有個人語音和實時語音信箱等功能。人工智能是這些功能的核心。然後,你可以一直使用手機啓動端的救生功能,例如跌倒檢測、碰撞檢測、手錶上的心電圖。沒有人工智能,這些是不可能的。
因此,如果你願意,我們不會給它們貼上這樣的標籤。我們給他們貼上他們的消費者利益的標籤。但是它背後的基礎技術是人工智能和機器學習。在生成人工智能方面,我們有 —— 顯然,我們還有工作要做。我不打算詳細說明它是什麼,因爲 —— 如你所知,我們沒有 —— 我們真的不這樣做。但是你可以打賭,我們在投資,我們正在進行大量投資,我們將負責任地進行投資,而且隨着時間的推移,你會看到產品的進步,而這些技術是它們的核心。
哈什·庫馬爾
謝謝,蒂姆。非常清楚。在我的後續行動中,我有一個哲學問題。因此,你們總是努力爲消費者提供最佳體驗。爲此,我認爲,在過去的十年中,你在手機、Mac、iPad等等中外購了許多重要的芯片。我認爲,從商人的角度來看,這是ARM在業內所沒有的功能。但是現在,我們看到這些硅專家,芯片專家正在轉向 ARM 架構。
所以我要問你的問題是,轉向內部硅對蘋果來說是否是經濟上有利可圖的提議?還是——還是戰略問題,你只需要擁有這個,它對你的產品來說對消費者體驗至關重要,或者在某個時候可能有一條重返芯片供應商的道路?
蒂姆·庫克
它確實使我們能夠製造不自己動手就無法制造的產品。如你所知,我們喜歡擁有我們交付的產品中的主要技術,可以說,硅是主要技術的核心,所以,不,我看不到回頭路可走。與上週相比,我今天比昨天更快樂,因爲我們實現了我們所做的過渡,而且我每天都能看到這種好處。
哈什·庫馬爾
謝謝,蒂姆。
蒂姆·庫克
是啊。
Suhasini Chandramouli
謝謝,哈什。請回答下一個問題。
操作員
我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的瓦姆西·莫漢。請繼續。
Wamsi Mohan
是的。非常感謝。蒂姆,在過去的十年中,你在中國幾乎獲得了很多份額。如你所見,你的 —— 一些國內玩家開始重新出現,尤其是在高端手機領域。我知道你談到了中國。但是,你會如何看待蘋果的定位和持續上漲的機會,尤其是在中國?從需求的角度來看,中國的線性度又如何呢?請問我有後續信息。
蒂姆·庫克
在9月的季度中,我們創下了iPhone創紀錄——中國的收入記錄,我們爲此感到非常自豪,而且我們顯然實現了增長。根據我所看到的市場預測,我們的市場已經萎縮。因此,如果是這樣,如果這些是正確的,那麼我們在上個季度獲得了份額。因此,我們爲此感到非常自豪,我不知道每個季度會怎樣。顯然,我們只是對本季度進行了一些闡述。但從長遠來看,我認爲中國是一個非常重要的市場,我對此非常樂觀。
Wamsi Mohan
好吧。謝謝,蒂姆。作爲後續行動,你的服務季度顯然表現不錯,你的部分服務業務與研究合作伙伴有這樣的許可關係,你在那裏爲他們提供非常重要的分銷職能。考慮到一些研究合作伙伴的審查,你能否談談你如何看待這些關係,以及蘋果可能爲減輕某些風險而必須採取的一些選擇?非常感謝。
盧卡·馬埃斯特里
它們是重要的關係。如你所知,我們在電話會議上沒有談到我們的商業關係。我認爲它們很重要,我們做出的決定符合用戶的最大利益或我們認爲符合用戶最大利益的決定。這就是我們過去所做的,也是我們現在的所作所爲——將來我們也將如何發揮領導作用。
Wamsi Mohan
好吧。謝謝,蒂姆。
Suhasini Chandramouli
謝謝,Wamsi。請問我們下一個問題嗎。
操作員
我們的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cowen。請繼續。
Krish Sankar
是啊。你好。感謝您回答這個問題。我也有兩個。第一個,盧卡,謝謝你的毛利潤率。縱觀過去四個季度,儘管收入同比下降,但毛利率還是有所提高。而且我知道服務肯定有幫助。我有點好奇,縱觀未來,大多數重大功能和成本降低,例如Mac Silicon轉換等,是否已經完成,或者此後還有更大的利潤率擴張空間?然後,我有了後續行動。
盧卡·馬埃斯特里
好吧,在產品方面,如你所知,我們——當我們推出新產品時,這些產品的成本結構往往高於它們所取代的產品。之所以發生這種情況,是因爲我們一直在添加新技術、新功能,然後,我們在產品的生命週期中研究了成本曲線,隨着時間的推移,我們往往會獲得收益。我們爲12月提供的指導反映了所有這些,因此,我們的起點比一年前或總體上要好得多。
還有其他因素在起作用。例如,我們銷售的產品組合。並非每種產品的毛利率都相同,因此我們的指導和業績都反映了這一點。而且,在特定的產品類別中,很大程度上取決於我們銷售的型號類型,因爲它們的利潤率不同。我認爲,在過去幾年中,我們做得不錯的一件事是以分期付款計劃、交易期權和支出(通常是低成本融資)的形式爲我們的客戶提供更實惠的解決方案。
這樣做的成果是降低了我們客戶的負擔能力門檻,因此,他們可以購買我們產品系列中的頂級產品。這一直是我們利潤率擴大的重要因素。我們不提供本季度以後的指導或顏色,因爲有許多不同的變量會影響毛利率,但我們顯然對2023年和現在,即我們爲24財年初提供的指導方針感到非常滿意。我們需要其中的一些東西,因爲很明顯,他們的外匯環境很艱難,對我們來說有點拖累。但是 net-net,我們對現在的狀況感到非常滿意。
Krish Sankar
明白了。謝謝你,盧卡。然後,我要跟進蒂姆。顯然,你在印度看到了驚人的勢頭。我有點好奇你會怎麼看 —— 當你看印度這些硬件部門的增長機會時,與其他地區相比,如何看待 ASP?有沒有辦法比較或對比印度、增長勢頭與中國(大概在十年前),在推出該地區的份額增長的同一時刻?
蒂姆·庫克
是啊。這是一個很好的問題。我們在印度創下了創紀錄的收入。我們增長了非常強勁的兩位數。對我們來說,這是一個非常令人興奮的市場,也是我們的主要關注點。我們在大型市場中的份額很低,因此看來那裏還有很大的餘地。ASP,我最近沒有看過,但我敢肯定,它們低於全球水平。但這根本不打擾我們。只是 —— 我想說,就相似之處而言,每個國家都有自己的旅程。
而且我不想玩比較遊戲。但是我們看到了一個非同尋常的市場,許多人進入中產階級,分佈越來越好,有很多積極的方面。如你所知,我們在那裏開了兩家零售店。他們的表現比我們預期的要好。現在還爲時過早,但他們有了一個良好的開端,我對目前的情況再滿意不過了。
Krish Sankar
謝謝,蒂姆。
Suhasini Chandramouli
謝謝,克里什。請問我們現在要回答下一個問題。
操作員
我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Ben Reitzes。請繼續。
Ben Reitzes
嘿。非常感謝。我很欣賞這個問題。蒂姆,我很欣賞你在中國的所有評論。很高興聽到那裏的增長潛力,你的樂觀情緒。我還想問一下供應鏈以及你的優先事項在哪裏?供應鏈多元化是您的優先事項嗎?你如何看待蘋果在全球的供應鏈?特別是,你如何看待在美國的進一步投資?
蒂姆·庫克
我們的供應鏈確實是全球性的,因此我們在包括美國在內的世界各地進行投資,我們非常專注於美國的先進製造,並在美國開展了許多不同的項目,無論是我們與康寧在玻璃、Face ID模塊還是半導體方面的合資項目。因此,所有這些都是我們的先進製造業,我認爲這正是美國將要和現在非常非常擅長的事情。我們還在世界其他地區進行了投資,並且我們正在不斷優化連鎖店。因此,我們 —— 當我們學到一些效果不完全正確的東西時,我們正在對其進行調整。因此,我們將繼續這樣做。但歸根結底,它仍然是一個全球供應鏈。
Ben Reitzes
明白了。謝謝。
蒂姆·庫克
是啊。
Ben Reitzes
下一個給盧卡。快速了解加時賽的動態。去年,iPhone的生產也出現了問題,中國實行了COVID封鎖。有沒有可能對此進行一些闡述 —— 我猜,今年的供應鏈有所正常化,今年的好處是什麼,也許與額外一週達到的7個百分點形成鮮明對比?非常感謝。
盧卡·馬埃斯特里
是啊。謝謝你的提問,本。我在準備好的講話中提到,額外的一週是7個百分點的收入。去年,我們在手機、14 Pro和Pro Max上確實遇到了中斷和供應中斷,去年12月的季度出現了供應中斷。而且,當我們對這兩個因素進行正常化時,我在電話會議上也說過,我們預計iPhone仍將實現增長。因此,你將額外一週的損失考慮在內,將其與今年希望不會重演的供應中斷進行比較。而且,當你對這兩件事進行正常化時,我們仍然有望在iPhone上實現增長。
Ben Reitzes
非常感謝大家。不勝感激,盧卡。
Suhasini Chandramouli
謝謝,本。我們現在要回答最後一個問題。
操作員
我們的最後一個問題來自Arete Research的理查德·克萊默。請繼續。
理查德·克萊默
非常感謝。蒂姆,首先,如果我們回顧一下過去兩年,蘋果的銷售額增長了約180億美元,研發增長了約8%——80億美元,增長了三分之一以上。你能告訴我們創新支出增加背後的一些主要組成部分或驅動因素嗎?是蘋果芯片,是像Vision Pro這樣的新產品還是滿足於支持新服務?我認爲這是投資者最常問的問題之一。謝謝。
蒂姆·庫克
當然。有很多東西,理查德。這是 —— 有些我無法談論的東西,是 Vision Pro,它是 AI 和 ML,這是我們正在進行的硅投資,與 Mac 和其他芯片的過渡。差不多就是這樣——但我想你會發現,總體而言,研發支出與其他支出相比看起來很有競爭力。
盧卡·馬埃斯特里
我還要補充一點,理查德,在這方面。我們在研發方面進行的一些投資也是毛利率擴張的驅動力之一。因此,我認爲這樣考慮很重要。
理查德·克萊默
太棒了。還有你提到的 Luca —— 或者蒂姆提到大學生選擇 Mac。然後,你提到了創紀錄的服務收入。你認爲你可以提供哪些其他指標來幫助投資者了解蘋果如何衡量和提高客戶的終身價值,尤其是當我們看到許多用戶使用價格相對較低的產品甚至翻新設備進入生態系統時?因此,您正在發展自己的生態系統,但是從長遠來看,您如何看待提高客戶終身價值?
盧卡·馬埃斯特里
好吧,我之前提到的一些指標,很明顯,我們要看的是活躍設備的安裝量。我們看到,我們希望確保我們獲得的客戶留在我們身邊,因此我們對此有良好的知名度,並且我們非常關注安裝群的行爲,無論是產品還是地域。然後,我們來看看生態系統中的日常參與度。因此,這就是爲什麼我們非常關注諸如交易賬戶、付費賬戶之類的事情的原因,我們想看看隨着時間的推移,我們是否能夠將客戶從免費模式轉移到付費模式。這顯然對我們來說非常非常重要。
因此,在這個問題上,我們會跟蹤所有這些事情,然後我們要做什麼,因爲我認爲這非常重要的是,隨着時間的推移,我們會增加新的服務,顯然,比如我們近年來在支付方面取得的進展,非常非常重要,因爲我們吸引了越來越多的人,他們現在正在我們的設備上使用其他功能,我們能夠從中獲利,對吧。
因此,我們會將所有這些考慮在內,了解當客戶加入我們時會發生什麼,當他們購買主設備而不是二手設備時,我們了解他們在不同市場中的行爲等等。因此,我認爲我們的知名度相當不錯。而且我認爲,我們在服務業取得的進展,在過去的12個月中,我們取得了850億美元的收入。是 —— 相當於《財富》50強的規模,比幾年前要大得多。
理查德·克萊默
絕對可以。非常感謝。
Suhasini Chandramouli
謝謝你,理查德。今天電話會議的重播將在蘋果播客上播出兩週,在apple.com/investor上以網絡直播的形式播出,並通過電話播出。電話重播的號碼是 866-583-1035。請輸入確認碼 0106234,然後輸入英鎊符號。這些重播將於太平洋時間今天下午5點左右上線。有其他問題的媒體成員可以致電408-862-1142聯繫喬什·羅森斯托克,金融分析師可以致電408-974-3123聯繫我蘇哈西尼·錢德拉穆利提出其他問題。再次感謝您今天加入我們。
操作員
今天的會議又一次到此結束。我們非常感謝您的參與。
(提示:此筆錄是通過錄音轉換的,我們會盡力而爲,但不能完全保證對話的準確性,僅供參考。)