When we're researching a company, it's sometimes hard to find the warning signs, but there are some financial metrics that can help spot trouble early. Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. Ultimately this means that the company is earning less per dollar invested and on top of that, it's shrinking its base of capital employed. So after glancing at the trends within China XD Electric (SHSE:601179), we weren't too hopeful.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for China XD Electric, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.015 = CN¥381m ÷ (CN¥40b - CN¥14b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
Thus, China XD Electric has an ROCE of 1.5%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Electrical industry average of 6.3%.
View our latest analysis for China XD Electric
Above you can see how the current ROCE for China XD Electric compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.
So How Is China XD Electric's ROCE Trending?
We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at China XD Electric. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 2.3% that they were earning five years ago. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect China XD Electric to turn into a multi-bagger.
The Bottom Line On China XD Electric's ROCE
All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. Despite the concerning underlying trends, the stock has actually gained 36% over the last five years, so it might be that the investors are expecting the trends to reverse. Regardless, we don't like the trends as they are and if they persist, we think you might find better investments elsewhere.
One more thing to note, we've identified 2 warning signs with China XD Electric and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.