The Zhitong Finance app learned that CITIC Construction Investment Securities published a research report saying that economic data is bottoming out and rising, incremental capital is improving, and the favorable macroeconomic environment is frequently favorable, and the securities sector allocation window period has arrived. In terms of insurance, the profits of listed insurers in the third quarter were generally under pressure, mainly on the asset side, but Ping An and Taibao still had impressive performance on the debt side. They continue to be optimistic that life insurance companies that have further advanced channel reforms and significantly improved channel quality have achieved good results. The current valuation level is low, and the allocation is relatively cost-effective, so it is recommended to focus on it. Market adjustments in Hong Kong continue, favorable policies are being introduced intensively, and we are waiting for the recovery to turn around.
The main views of CITIC Construction Investment Securities are as follows:
Securities: Economic data is bottoming out and rising, incremental capital is improving positively, and the favorable macroeconomic environment is frequently favorable. The securities sector allocation window period has arrived.
1) In September, large and larger industrial enterprises achieved a year-on-year increase in profit of 11.9%. In January-September, industrial enterprises above the national scale achieved a total profit of 5411.99 billion yuan, down 9.0% from the previous year, and the decline was 2.7 percentage points narrower than in January-August. The manufacturing industry is expected to recover.
2) Since September, the turnover of A-shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has increased month-on-month, with an average turnover of 682 billion yuan on 9/8-9/21, an average turnover of 762.5 billion yuan on 9/22-10/13, and 808.2 billion yuan on 10/16-10/27. The month-on-month growth rate was -21.9%/+11.8%/+6.0%, respectively. Investor sentiment is expected to revive;
3) On October 24, the central government said it would issue an additional trillion in treasury bonds, and the national fiscal deficit rate was raised from 3% to 3.8%, boosting confidence in economic growth and expectations for strong financial growth.
Insurance: The State Financial Supervisory Administration released the operating conditions of the insurance industry in September 2023. Looking at the debt side, in terms of personal insurance, the growth rate of life insurance premiums in September was still low. It is expected that insurance companies will focus more on team training and preparations for a good start to the next year, mainly due to the discontinuation of sales of old products after the pricing interest rate adjustment.
In September, personal insurance companies achieved original insurance premium income of 246.751 billion yuan, +0.9% year-on-year, of which life insurance, accident insurance and health insurance were +0.5%, -7.6%, and +3.0%, respectively. The additional payment for insurer investment funds and the additional payment for independent investment insurance accounts was 29.358 billion yuan and 3,315 billion yuan respectively, +1.5% and -348.7%, respectively.
In terms of property insurance, premiums increased steadily in September, but payout rates are still expected to increase year over year. In September, property insurance companies achieved original insurance premium income of 132,757 billion yuan, +5.9% year-on-year, of which auto insurance and non-auto insurance were +6.9% and +4.5% year-on-year respectively, with payout rates of +7.7pct to 71.0% year-on-year.
Risk warning:The macroeconomic economy has fluctuated sharply, capital market transaction activity has been sluggish, and major policy changes have taken place.