The Zhitong Finance app learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that as the obesity rate of the Chinese population and the prevalence of chronic diseases such as diabetic nephropathy increase year by year,The market size of drugs to treat obesity and reduce sugar and weight loss in China also continues to develop and expand, the market space is vast. Currently, GLP-1 drugs have achieved positive results in clinical studies on weight loss indications, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, etc., and the prospects for drug application are gradually becoming clear! [Key recommendations for individual stocks] Huadong Pharmaceutical (000963.SZ), Pharmaceutical Kangde (603259.SH), etc.
▍ Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:
1. Continued breakthroughs in the upper limit of the efficacy of GLP-1 drugs for weight loss have boosted performance growth. The indications for chronic diseases under development are expected to be further generalized, and the long-term market space is also worth looking forward to!
Referring to the pace of release of GLP-1 drugs for type 2 diabetes, improvements in drug efficacy and compliance are important factors driving sales growth. If various GLP-1 drugs under development, which have shown corresponding advantages, are successfully marketed, it will further catalyze the performance growth of related drugs in the field of weight loss indications.
Furthermore, a series of GLP-1 drugs represented by semeglutide have shown good application prospects in the fields of chronic kidney disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, and improvement of cardiovascular outcomes. The application scenarios of GLP-1 drugs are expected to be further generalized, and the long-term market space is worth looking forward to.
[Core view] The bank believes that weight loss and other chronic disease indications will continue to bring a considerable increase in market space to GLP-1 drugs. It suggests focusing on investment mapping of major drug performance and R&D developments in domestic pharmaceutical targets and related industry chain OEM investment opportunities, including upstream CDMO companies and related innovative drug development companies.
2. Simeglutide sales in North America exceeded expectations, and overseas giants continued to raise their performance guidelines!
Simeglutide injections for type 2 diabetes and weight loss indications were approved for marketing by the FDA in 2017 and 2021, respectively. The product names are Ozempic and Wekovy, respectively. Sales of the two products in the US for the first half of '23 were US$5.46/ 864 million, respectively, and revenue exceeded expectations.
Novo Nordisk announced that the revenue/operating profit for the first three quarters increased by 33%/37%, respectively, and raised its full-year performance expectations again. It is expected that the annual revenue/operating profit will increase by about 35%/43%, respectively. This performance adjustment is the third time in the year that Novo Nordisk has raised its full-year performance expectations. It was previously announced in August that it expects annual revenue/operating profit to increase by about 30%/34%, respectively.