The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zheshang Securities released a research report saying that Tesla FSD leads the world, creates a closed loop of algorithms+computing power+data to build a moat, and that price cuts+accelerated launch of V12 are expected to help FSD usher in an explosion. On the domestic side, the new Wenjie M7 (equipped with Huawei ADS2.0) was launched on September 12, '23. In less than 30 days of launch, the total number of units sold is estimated to have exceeded 50,000 units (the old Wenjie M7 sold a total of 4,976 units from March to August 23). The bank believes that smart driving has helped new car builders break records in sales, and that the domestic smart driving industry chain is expected to explode, and is actively paying attention to targets related to the domestic intelligent driving industry chain.

The main views of Zheshang Securities are as follows:

Tesla: Tesla leads the world in smart driving, FSD may usher in an explosion

Tesla FSD leads the world, building a closed loop of algorithms+computing power+data to build a moat. 1) In terms of algorithms, Tesla proposed the BEV+Transformer algorithm in 2021 and OccupancyNetwork in '22. The algorithm is about 2 years ahead of leading domestic players. 2) In terms of computing power, the total computing power in 2022 is about 2EFLOPS. Tesla expects to reach 100 EFLOPS (about 300,000 A100 sheets) in October 2024, and computing power is growing rapidly. 3) In terms of data, long driving distance (as of June 23, FSDbeta exceeded 300 million miles) +many vehicles sold (according to Tesla's 2022 report, more than 1.3 million units were delivered in '22, and 1.8 million units are expected to be delivered in '23) +shadow mode, maintaining the advantage in terms of data.

FSD performance continues to improve, and the number of users and mileage is growing rapidly.1) Number of users: The number of users increased from 1,000 in October 2021 to 400,000 in January 2023, of which it only took 4 months (2022.09-2023.01) from 16 to 400,000. 2) Mileage: FSDbeta mileage exceeded 300 million miles in June '23, of which it only took less than half a year from 100 million to 300 million miles (2023.01-2023.06).

Price cuts+accelerated launch of V12 are expected to help FSD usher in a moment of explosion.In September 2023, the FSD purchase price was reduced from 15,000 US dollars to 12,000 US dollars, which is expected to stimulate an increase in the penetration rate of FSD in North America. Musk tweeted in May 2023 that FSDV12 will be an “end-to-end” autonomous vehicle. At the same time, “autosteeroncitystreets” (autosteeroncitystreets) will no longer be listed by Tesla as an “upcoming launch” list (it has been on the “upcoming list” for the past 4 years), and FSDV12 is expected to be launched at an accelerated pace.

Domestic: Domestic manufacturers accelerate development, and the domestic smart driving industry chain benefits deeply

Domestic manufacturers have accelerated their development, and smart driving software and hardware have been continuously upgraded.1) Huawei: The total computing power of the intelligent driving model reaches 1.8 EFLOPS. The model is iterated every 5 days, and the daily deep learning mileage exceeds 10 million kilometers. 2) Xiaopeng: Based on Alibaba Cloud's intelligent computing platform, the computing power has reached 600 PFLOPS, and the efficiency of urban NGP is close to that of human drivers.

Smart driving helped new car builders break records in sales, and the domestic smart driving industry chain is expected to explode.1) Huawei: The new Wenjie M7 (equipped with Huawei ADS2.0) was launched on September 12, '23. In less than 30 days of launch, the total number of units sold is estimated to exceed 50,000 units (the old Wenjie M7 sold a total of 4976 units from March to August 23). 2) Xiaopeng: Delivery of the new model G6 with XNGP began in July 2023, and sales increased rapidly. In September, G6 sales exceeded 8,000 units.

Risk warning:The progress of FSD technology falls short of expectations, the sharp price reduction of FSD is squeezing the space of domestic car companies, the intelligent penetration rate falls short of expectations, customer expansion falls short of expectations, risk of translation bias, risk of third-party data reliability