What underlying fundamental trends can indicate that a company might be in decline? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. Ultimately this means that the company is earning less per dollar invested and on top of that, it's shrinking its base of capital employed. On that note, looking into Singapore Shipping (SGX:S19), we weren't too upbeat about how things were going.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for Singapore Shipping, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.06 = US$10m ÷ (US$187m - US$13m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2023).

Therefore, Singapore Shipping has an ROCE of 6.0%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Shipping industry average of 8.2%.

Check out our latest analysis for Singapore Shipping

Historical performance is a great place to start when researching a stock so above you can see the gauge for Singapore Shipping's ROCE against it's prior returns. If you want to delve into the historical earnings, revenue and cash flow of Singapore Shipping, check out these free graphs here.

What Can We Tell From Singapore Shipping's ROCE Trend?

In terms of Singapore Shipping's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. About five years ago, returns on capital were 8.2%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Singapore Shipping becoming one if things continue as they have.

The Bottom Line

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Despite the concerning underlying trends, the stock has actually gained 1.7% over the last five years, so it might be that the investors are expecting the trends to reverse. Either way, we aren't huge fans of the current trends and so with that we think you might find better investments elsewhere.

Since virtually every company faces some risks, it's worth knowing what they are, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Singapore Shipping (of which 1 is concerning!) that you should know about.

For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.