The Zhitong Finance app learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that China's heavy truck industry sales volume = volume of new holdings+replacement volume+export volume,In this upward cycle, it is mainly driven by renewal and elimination and exports.According to estimates, the total sales volume of the heavy truck industry in 2023/2024 is expected to be 90/1.03 million units, of which the export volume is 28/300,000 units. The penetration rate of heavy natural gas trucks is expected to reach 17%/27%, corresponding to 15/280,000 vehicles.

▍ The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:

At a time when the recovery of the heavy truck industry is underway, the trillion treasury bond policy is the new catalyst:

According to data from the China Automobile Association, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy truck industry in January-September of this year reached 710,000 units, an increase of 35% over the previous year; according to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in January-September, the industry exported about 240,000 vehicles, an increase of 78% over the previous year. Looking at the share of the sales structure by use, the current engineering/logistics level is roughly 2/8. Since the beginning of the year, heavy logistics trucks have maintained good growth in line with the recovery in consumption, while heavy engineering trucks have had poor sales volume due to sluggish investment in infrastructure and real estate.

Looking ahead to Q4, the gradual implementation of trillion-dollar treasury bonds will stimulate the further recovery of the heavy truck industry, especially engineering heavy trucks.

Heavy natural gas trucks have performed excellently, and the penetration rate will continue to increase:

Since this year, the price of natural gas in the national natural gas market has been declining, falling from 6,800 yuan/ton in early January to about 4,200 yuan/ton at the end of September. The price difference with diesel has continued to widen. While the economic benefits of heavy natural gas trucks are highlighted, sales continue to explode.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of heavy natural gas trucks in January-September of this year was 99,200 units, a sharp increase of 370% over the previous year. The penetration rate has now reached 13.8%. It is expected that the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of next year will become mainstream in the market.

Sales outlook:

China's heavy truck industry sales volume = new volume of holdings+replacement volume+export volume. In this upward cycle, it is mainly driven by renewal and elimination and exports. According to estimates, the total sales volume of the heavy truck industry in 2023/2024 is expected to be 90/1.03 million units, of which the export volume is 28/300,000 units. The penetration rate of heavy natural gas trucks is expected to reach 17%/27%, corresponding to 15/280,000 vehicles.

Risk warning:

The sales volume of the heavy truck industry fell short of expectations; policy implementation progress fell short of expectations; and the penetration rate of LNG heavy trucks fell short of expectations.