Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. For example, after five long years the Premier, Inc. (NASDAQ:PINC) share price is a whole 57% lower. We certainly feel for shareholders who bought near the top. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 44%. Furthermore, it's down 29% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
Since Premier has shed US$81m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
Check out our latest analysis for Premier
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Looking back five years, both Premier's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 16% per year. Notably, the share price has fallen at 15% per year, fairly close to the change in the EPS. This implies that the market has had a fairly steady view of the stock. So it's fair to say the share price has been responding to changes in EPS.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into Premier's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Premier's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Premier, it has a TSR of -53% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Investors in Premier had a tough year, with a total loss of 42% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 9.9%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 9% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Premier better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Premier , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.