Zhitong Financial APP learned that according to a research report released by China Post Securities, the global market for conductive carbon black in 2022 will be about 33000 tons, with a market size of about 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of more than 60 percent. Estimated that by 2025,The global market for conductive carbon black is expected to exceed 7 billion yuan.The annual compound growth rate is more than 20%. At present, the main global suppliers of conductive carbon black are Cabot in the United States, Yiruishi in France, Lion King in Japan and so on.Domestic traditional carbon black enterprises are accelerating the breakthrough of lithium conductive carbon black.Black cat stock (002068.SZ) is the leader in the domestic carbon black industry, with a market share of 14%. It currently has a production capacity of 10,000 tons of lithium conductive carbon black and began to supply small quantities to downstream battery customers in June 2023; Yongdong stock (002753.SZ) is a domestic leader in the production of coal tar and carbon black, lithium conductive carbon black products have carried out sample delivery.

The main points of ▍ China Post Securities are as follows:

Conductive agent is an important auxiliary material for battery, and conductive carbon black is the most commonly used conductive agent.

The main function of the conductive agent is to improve the electrical conductivity of the battery. The weight of the conductive agent usually accounts for 0.3% of the total solid weight of the positive or negative electrode. Only a small amount of addition is needed to greatly improve the performance of the lithium battery, which is an important auxiliary material for the battery. In 2022, domestic shipments of conductive agents were 37000 tons, an increase of 76 percent over the same period last year. The product types of conductive agents include conductive carbon black, carbon nanotubes, graphene and so on. Conductive carbon black is the most widely used conductive agent at present, accounting for about 65% of the domestic market share.

Conductive carbon black is a kind of carbon black. China is the largest supplier in the world, but high-end products still rely on imports.

China is the largest producer of carbon black in the world, accounting for about 45% of the global output. In 2022, the domestic output of carbon black is about 5 million tons. From a structural point of view, China's carbon black industry is mainly traditional carbon black, mainly used in tires, rubber and other fields; in the high-end field represented by conductive carbon black, it is still very dependent on overseas imports.

The performance of conductive carbon black is higher, and the price of overseas products is several times higher than that of ordinary carbon black.

Conductive carbon black has higher requirements for product performance, pursuing high conductivity and low impurity content. At present, conductive carbon black is basically monopolized by overseas manufacturers.

In terms of price, the price of conductive carbon black is several times higher than that of traditional carbon black. The average price of ordinary carbon black is about 10,000 yuan / ton, and the price of conductive carbon black ranges from tens of thousands to more than 200,000. From the perspective of cost structure, raw materials and electricity charges are the main factors of carbon black, accounting for about 90% of the cost; in addition, the sea freight of overseas products is also a major cost item. if conductive carbon black can be replaced by domestic production, there is more room for cost reduction.

There is a strong demand in the downstream new energy industry, and the market space for conductive carbon black is expected to be 7 billion by 2025.

In 2022, the global market demand for conductive carbon black is about 33000 tons, with a market size of about 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of more than 60 percent. It is estimated that by 2025, the global market space for conductive carbon black is expected to exceed 7 billion yuan, with an annual compound growth rate of more than 20%.

Cabot, Yi Ruishi and Lion King are the leaders of overseas carbon black, which are made in China instead of Xingshi.

At present, the main global suppliers of conductive carbon black are Cabot in the United States, Yiruishi in France, Lion King in Japan and so on. Domestic traditional carbon black enterprises are accelerating the breakthrough of lithium conductive carbon black. Black cat shares is the leader in the domestic carbon black industry, with a market share of 14%. It currently has a production capacity of 10,000 tons of lithium conductive carbon black and began to supply small quantities to downstream battery customers in June 2023. Yongdong shares is a domestic leader in the production of coal tar and carbon black. Lithium conductive carbon black products have carried out sample delivery.

Risk Tips:

The risk of technological change; the risk of domestic and foreign policy change; the risk of raw material price and exchange rate fluctuation; the progress of domestic substitution is not as expected.