Zhitong Financial APP learned thatAccording to a research report released by Soochow Securities, China's industrial robot market is 60.9 billion yuan in 2022, up 16% from the same period last year. CAGR in 2017-2022 was 14%. Over the same period, the revenue of Eston Industrial Robotics (excluding the impact of Cloos acquisitions) was 57%, and the share of sales continued to rise to 5.9% in 2022.Benefiting from the take-off of domestic superior industries and the expansion of downstream application scenarios, such as photovoltaic, lithium and other domestic customers, the localization of industrial robots ushered in opportunities. Focus on the domestic industrial robot leader 002747.SZ; suggest to pay attention to the rapid growth of industrial robot business 688165.SH.
The main points of Soochow Securities are as follows
Event
Evert announced that industrial robot shipments reached 9567 from January to September 2023, an increase of 118% over the same period last year.
Main points of investment
oneTo meet the inflection point of demand in October, the inventory of the robot industry has been cleared gradually.
According to the industry chain tracking of relevant think tanks, industrial robot shipments in October are expected to achieve positive growth compared with September. Compared with the lacklustre performance from January to September, the demand for industrial robots improved significantly after excluding the influence of National Day in October. We judge that the demand performance of ① photovoltaic industry continues to be strong. Since 2023, the photovoltaic market has benefited from the equipment renewal demand generated by technology iterations, and the growth rate of shipments in the first half of the year is more than 90%. ② industrial robot manufacturers have a large backlog of inventory since 2022, which has been gradually cleared; the demand of ③ general manufacturing industry has recovered. In September, the manufacturing industry PMI 50.2%, with a previous value of 49.7%, stood on the boom line for the first time since May. The general manufacturing demand has gradually picked up, effectively driving the demand of the industrial robot industry.
twoThe process of domestic substitution is accelerated, and the high growth rate of domestic capital leaders accelerates to catch up.
Under the uncertain trend of market demand in 2023, industry price war and involution become an inevitable trend. Domestic brands with cost-effective advantages seize the opportunity to accelerate confrontation with foreign investors and seize market share in areas such as lithium electricity, photovoltaic, auto parts and so on. at the same time, the penetration in the whole vehicle field accelerated, and the sales volume of foreign enterprises was negative in the first half of the year, but the domestic enterprises grew by more than 20%. In the first half of 2023, the localization rate of industrial robots was 44%. Year-on-year promotion of 8pct (2022 year-on-year promotion of 4pct), domestic instead of speed up. In terms of the competition pattern, the sales volume of more than half of the enterprises declined in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year, and only a few domestic head manufacturers were optimistic about their orders, reshaped the market pattern and accelerated the reshuffle of the industry. According to the Evert announcement, from January to September 2023, industrial robot shipments reached 9567 units, an increase of 118% over the same period last year. The industrial robot industry is becoming more and more focused on the head, while small and medium-sized manufacturers are gradually clearing out.
threeIndustrial robots benefit from domestic substitution and robot +, and domestic leaders are on the rise.
The size of China's industrial robot market in 2022 was 60.9 billion yuan, an increase of 16% compared with the same period last year. CAGR was 14% in 2017-2022. In the same period, the revenue of Eston Industrial Robotics (excluding the impact of Cloos acquisition) was 57%, and the share of sales continued to rise to 5.9% in 2022. China's industrial robots have dual drivers of penetration enhancement and domestic substitution, and the industry has a broad prospect: (1) from the perspective of permeability, the density of robots in China's manufacturing industry in 2021 will be 322 / 10,000 people. according to the Robot + Application Action implementation Plan issued by 17 departments such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the robot density target in China's manufacturing industry in 2025 is double that of 2020 (about 500 / 10,000 people). Under the trend of machine replacement and intelligent factory transformation. The penetration of industrial robots continues to increase. (2) in terms of localization rate, according to the sales volume, the localization rate of industrial robots in China is only 35% in 2022, the market share of domestic leading Easton / Huichuan robot is only 6% and 5%, and the total share of the "four families" is 40%. Benefiting from the take-off of domestic superior industries and the expansion of downstream application scenarios, such as photovoltaic, lithium and other domestic customers, the localization of industrial robots ushered in opportunities.
Investment suggestion
Focus on the domestic industrial robot leader [Easton]; suggest to pay attention to the rapid growth of industrial robot business [Evert].
Risk hint
Industry competition aggravates risk; downstream demand fluctuation risk; domestic substitution is lower than expected