share_log

It's Down 32% But Aspen (Group) Holdings Limited (SGX:1F3) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 18, 2023 18:20

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Aspen (Group) Holdings Limited (SGX:1F3) share price has dived 32% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 62% share price decline.

After such a large drop in price, Aspen (Group) Holdings may be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x, since almost half of all companies in the Real Estate industry in Singapore have P/S ratios greater than 1.7x and even P/S higher than 5x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

See our latest analysis for Aspen (Group) Holdings

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SGX:1F3 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry October 18th 2023

What Does Aspen (Group) Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

The recent revenue growth at Aspen (Group) Holdings would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to degrade, which has repressed the P/S. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders may have reason to be optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Aspen (Group) Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

Aspen (Group) Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 6.7% last year. The latest three year period has also seen a 21% overall rise in revenue, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is only predicted to deliver 3.0% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is stronger based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this information, we find it odd that Aspen (Group) Holdings is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. Apparently some shareholders believe the recent performance has exceeded its limits and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

What Does Aspen (Group) Holdings' P/S Mean For Investors?

The southerly movements of Aspen (Group) Holdings' shares means its P/S is now sitting at a pretty low level. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Aspen (Group) Holdings revealed its three-year revenue trends aren't boosting its P/S anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look better than current industry expectations. When we see strong revenue with faster-than-industry growth, we assume there are some significant underlying risks to the company's ability to make money which is applying downwards pressure on the P/S ratio. It appears many are indeed anticipating revenue instability, because the persistence of these recent medium-term conditions would normally provide a boost to the share price.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Aspen (Group) Holdings (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Aspen (Group) Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
    Write a comment