The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that the pressure on new insurance policy sales in August and September is in line with market expectations, and it is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity throughout the year. Looking ahead, it is expected that customer demand will gradually be restored, the team will have plenty of time to master sales skills for new products, and the new products are still somewhat attractive compared to competing products. It is expected that they are off to a good start and advance sales are progressing relatively well. The debt-side recovery logic is smooth. The supply-side continues to promote channel transformation, “insurance+” services, and debt cost optimization. Demand for demand-side savings products has existed for a long time and is expected to increase further. Positive factors on the debt side continue to accumulate, and it is expected that 2024 will achieve a good start. Currently, the overall long-term interest rate on the asset side is at a stage where it is easy to rise and fall, which is conducive to supporting the valuation of insurance stocks. Increased bank stock holdings by Huijin is beneficial to insurance stock equity holdings, and at the same time sends a positive signal to the equity market.
Open Source Securities recommends China Taibao (601601.SH), which is leading in channel transformation and has strong sustainability; China Life Insurance (601628.SH), which has a rich experience in “getting off to a good start”, and China Ping An (), where the “Insurance+” ecosystem continues to be implemented and channel transformation is being promoted throughout the country. 601318.SH Beneficial target Xinhua Insurance (601336.SH).
The year-on-year decline in total premiums for 2023M9 life insurance increased, and 2024Q1 may still achieve a good increase in NBV
In September 2023, the total life insurance premiums of the six listed insurers totaled 121.1 billion yuan, -6.2% year on year (excluding Sunshine Insurance), and the growth rate fell 4.4 pct from August. Among them: China Insurance (601319.SH) -2.5%, China Ping An -4.2%, China Taibao -5.5%, China Life Insurance -7.2%, and Xinhua Insurance -9.9%. The year-on-year premium decline for most listed insurers in September is expected to be mainly due to the early release of demand for early product switching and channel team clean-up and preparation. The cumulative total premiums for life insurance for the first 9 months of 2023 were: China Insurance +10.4%, China Taibao +7.9%, China Ping An +7.2%, China Life Insurance +4.5%, and Xinhua Insurance +3.7%.
Looking ahead, customer demand has been repaired for some time, and is expected to gradually pick up in the future. The sales team has plenty of time to master the sales logic of new products, which is expected to drive a good start. Residents' demand for asset allocation has been around for a long time, and the yield of competitive products related to savings products has declined. Open Source Securities is expected to maintain a good year-on-year growth rate, driven by savings products, 2024Q1NBV.
The premiums for the 2023M9 new order were under year-on-year pressure in line with expectations, and maintained a high level of prosperity in the first 3 quarters
The premium revenue for China Ping An Personal Business Order Q3 was 25.55 billion yuan, or +25.4% year-on-year. It is expected to remain high, driven by the product switch in July. The growth rate is narrower than +69.6% of the new Q2 orders. The premium for new orders remained +28.9% year-on-year in the first 3 quarters, maintaining a high level of prosperity. China Insurance's personal insurance sector had premiums of 4.39 billion yuan for the first year of Q3 long-term insurance, +42.8% year-on-year, down from +116.1% in Q2. The year-on-year ratio of new long-term insurance orders in September was -38.5%. It is expected to be mainly hampered by the early release of demand and team restructuring and preparation for 2024. It is expected that long-term insurance premiums for the first year in the first 3 quarters were 57.35 billion yuan, +18.4% year-on-year.
Financial insurance premiums improved year-on-year in September 2023, and new car sales are expected to be boosted by the smart car concept
In September 2023, the five listed insurers had financial insurance premium income of 91.5 billion yuan, +3.7% year on year (excluding Sunshine Insurance), up 1.8 pct from August +1.9%. Financial insurance premiums for each insurer in September were: Taibao Financial Insurance +11.2% (August +2.8%), People's Insurance +6.1% (August +7.8%), Zhongan Online +2.1% (August +9.2%), Ping An Financial Insurance -4.1% (August -7.1%). According to data from the China Automobile Association, passenger car sales in September 2023 were +6.6% year on year, down 0.3 pct compared to August 2023, +9.4% month on month. It is expected that sales will increase further in the future, driven by the smart car concept. People's Insurance Insurance's car insurance premiums in September were +6.8% year-on-year. The growth rate was 1.1 pct higher than in August, and the monthly year-on-year increase was for 2 consecutive months. Zhongan Online's premiums for September were 2.28 billion yuan, +2.1% year-on-year, and -23.1% month-on-month. The year-on-year decline increased. The cumulative year-on-year rate for the previous 9 months was +28.5%, and it still maintained a relatively rapid growth rate.
Risk warning:Economic recovery fell short of expectations; demand for insurance products fell short of expectations.