According to a research report released by Oriental Wealth, fluorite is a "world-class scarce resource" and its price has recently reached an all-time high, Zhitong Financial APP has learned. On the supply side, the total amount of resources is shrinking, and the reserve-output ratio of a single mine is only more than 10 years. On the demand side, it is expected to be about 9.74 million tons in 2023 and 16.72 million tons in 2030. The bank believes that new energy will provide growth, the demand for traditional refrigerants will grow steadily, the demand for fluorite will grow faster than supply in the medium and long term, and the price center will continue to rise. Continue to be optimistic about the industry leaders with resources, cost and technological advantages. Recommended attention: Goldstone Resources (603505.SH), Yonghe shares (605020.SH), Giant Chemical shares (600160.SH).
The main points of Oriental Wealth are as follows:
Supply: the total amount of resources is shrinking, and the reserve-output ratio of a single mine is only more than 10 years.
Attributes: world-class scarce resources, strategic minerals, fluorine-containing non-metals.
Global: according to the United States Geological Survey in 2022, global fluorite reserves are about 260 million tons, down nearly 20% from the same period last year, the first decline in nearly 15 years.
Domestic: China's high-quality fluorite resources are scarce, the proved available resources of single-type fluorite ore is about 80 million tons, and the reserve-output ratio is only more than 10 years.
Policy: China included fluorite in the "Strategic Mineral list" in 2016, the supervision has been strengthened, and the barriers for entry into the industry have been continuously raised.
Demand: traditional applications are not pessimistic, while emerging needs are on the edge.
Total demand: the bank expects about 9.74 million tons in 2023 and 16.72 million tons in 2030.
Subdivision demand: at present, the downstream is mainly hydrofluoric acid, aluminum fluoride, further used in refrigerants, iron and steel, new energy and new materials and other fields.
Refrigerant: according to the Kigali Amendment and the draft of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, China's HFCs
The production baseline is 1.852 billion tCO2, and enterprises are given a maximum HFCs quota adjustment increment of 10% without increasing the total carbon dioxide equivalent. Different from the market view, the bank believes that the Kigali Amendment aims to control the total carbon dioxide equivalent quota as the compliance goal, and the policy direction is conducive to the deployment of third-generation refrigerants to varieties with lower GWP values, so that there is room for actual production to increase. The fluorine content in the molecular structure of the superimposed third generation refrigerant is higher and the unit consumption is higher, and the demand for fluorite will continue to grow steadily. In addition, the rapid economic development in Southeast Asia, such as India, will lead to an increase in the demand for air-conditioning refrigerants in the future.
New energy: including photovoltaic (battery, fluorinated backplane, etc.), new energy vehicles (electrolyte, PVDF, negative electrode, proton exchange membrane), wind power (FEVE) and other fields, will further promote fluorite consumption. The bank expects fluorite demand in the new energy sector to be about 1.54 million tonnes, or 16 per cent, in 2023 and is expected to grow to 6.26 million tonnes, or 37 per cent, by 2030.
Price: set a record high and usher in a new cycle
Long-term: historical prices outperform CPI. Long-term logic is that fluorite as a scarce resource, increasing demand in emerging areas, will maintain a pattern that supply exceeds demand.
Medium-and short-term: three cycles since the new century, or a new starting point in 2023. Recent: continued to rise, October 8 market quotation reached 4000 yuan / ton, a record high.
Recommended concerns are as follows:1. Gold resources (fluorite reserves remain stable at 27 million tons) 2, Yonghe shares (proved fluorite reserves up to 4.85 million tons of ore) 3, Juhua shares (the largest shareholder owns fluorite reserves of about 15 million tons)