The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn't blame long term The Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels, Limited (HKG:45) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 41% over a half decade. But it's up 6.4% in the last week.
While the last five years has been tough for Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
View our latest analysis for Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels
Because Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Over half a decade Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 12% for each year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. On the face of it we'd posit the share price fall of 7% compound, over five years is well justified by the fundamental deterioration. We doubt many shareholders are delighted with this share price performance. Risk averse investors probably wouldn't like this one much.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels had a tough year, with a total loss of 3.3%, against a market gain of about 12%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 7% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
But note: Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.