Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term S.F. Holding Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002352) shareholders. Sadly for them, the share price is down 54% in that time. Furthermore, it's down 12% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 6.8% in the same timeframe.
So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
View our latest analysis for S.F. Holding
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, S.F. Holding actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 3.2% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It looks to us like the market was probably too optimistic around growth three years ago. However, taking a look at other business metrics might shed a bit more light on the share price action.
With a rather small yield of just 0.6% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 25% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating S.F. Holding further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. You can see what analysts are predicting for S.F. Holding in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 3.2% in the twelve months, S.F. Holding shareholders did even worse, losing 16% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 1.1%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand S.F. Holding better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for S.F. Holding that you should be aware of before investing here.
We will like S.F. Holding better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.