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Dragon Rise Group Holdings Limited's (HKG:6829) 36% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 13, 2023 18:10

The Dragon Rise Group Holdings Limited (HKG:6829) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 36%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 44% share price drop.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, Dragon Rise Group Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.7x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 4x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

Earnings have risen at a steady rate over the last year for Dragon Rise Group Holdings, which is generally not a bad outcome. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this good earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Dragon Rise Group Holdings

pe-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:6829 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry October 13th 2023
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Dragon Rise Group Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is Dragon Rise Group Holdings' Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Dragon Rise Group Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 6.6% last year. However, due to its less than impressive performance prior to this period, EPS growth is practically non-existent over the last three years overall. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 24% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Dragon Rise Group Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Dragon Rise Group Holdings' shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Dragon Rise Group Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Dragon Rise Group Holdings (1 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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