According to a research report released by Everbright Securities, influenza vaccine is the golden track for the birth of a global blockbuster variety, but this field is still in a state of low penetration in China and there is still huge room for growth in the future, Zhitong Financial APP learned. With the cooling of autumn and winter in 2023, the high incidence season of influenza is coming.It is expected that the terminal demand for influenza vaccine may be booming, and the performance and market attention of related enterprises will be strongly boosted., recommend Hualan vaccine (301207.SZ), suggest to pay attention to 688276.SH and so on.

Events:

The incidence of influenza outbreaks has increased recently. According to the influenza weekly report released by the National Influenza Center, in the 39th week of 2023 (September 25, 2023-October 1, 2023), influenza-like cases (ILI,Influenza-Like Illness) reported by sentinel hospitals in southern provinces were 5.4%, higher than the previous week level (5.2%), and higher than the same period 2020-2022 level (3.4%, 3.5% and 3.2%). In the 39th week of 2023, sentinel hospitals in northern provinces reported an ILI% of 2.7 per cent, lower than the previous week's level (3.1 per cent) and higher than the same period from 2020 to 2022 (2.3 per cent, 2.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent).

The main points of ▍ Everbright Securities are as follows:

The proportion of influenza-like cases is higher than that in the same period in history, and the changes of virus strains increase the risk of breaking through the immune barrier.

Since the beginning of autumn in 2023, with the gradual decline of temperature, the influenza epidemic situation has shown a significant upward trend, in which the ILI% reported by sentinel hospitals in southern provinces has been the highest in nearly 10 years, while that in northern provinces is also higher than that in the past 3 years. This year's influenza epidemic may be more severe than in previous years. On the other hand, the etiological surveillance results of autumn influenza were also significantly different from those of spring influenza. In the 39th week of 2023, 9555 influenza samples were tested, of which 440 were positive, and A (H3N2) / A (H1N1) pdm09/Victoria was 350-12-78, accounting for 79.5%, 2.7%, 17.7% of the positive samples.

Compared with the 12th week of 2023 (March 20, 2023-March 26, 2023), a total of 13305 samples were tested, of which 7335 were positive, accounting for 55.1% of the total positive A (H1N1) pdm09/A (H3N2). There were 2,322 positive samples, accounting for 68.3% of the positive samples. The proportion of epidemic strains in autumn has changed significantly compared with that in spring, which may also increase the risk of breaking through the population immune barrier.

During the epidemic period of COVID-19, the amount of influenza vaccination was low, and the immune barrier of the whole population was weak.

During the epidemic of COVID-19, the normal vaccination of influenza vaccine was greatly affected, and the domestic population did not achieve the ideal vaccination. Taking the sales of listed companies as an example, the production and sales of Hualan vaccine from 2021 to 2022 were 2532 / 26.86 million, 1554 / 14.54 million, 775 / 6.29 million, 350 / 2.86 million and 399 / 1.92 million, respectively, but the sales were only 60 / 390000.

The low amount of influenza vaccination for two consecutive years may lead to a weak immune barrier of the domestic population to influenza, which may also be related to the serious epidemic of H1N1 in 2023Q1. Before the completion of this year's new round of large-scale influenza vaccination and the establishment of immune barriers, the risk of influenza outbreaks cannot be ignored.

Influenza vaccine: the domestic penetration rate is still low, and the high incidence of influenza may lead to a booming demand for influenza vaccine.

Influenza vaccine is the golden track for the birth of global blockbuster varieties, but this field is still in a state of low penetration in China, and there is still huge room for growth in the future. With the cooling in the autumn and winter of 2023 and the advent of the high incidence season of influenza, it is expected that the terminal demand for influenza vaccine may be boosted, and the performance and market attention of relevant enterprises will be strongly boosted. Hualan vaccine is recommended, and Baker Biology and Kindick are recommended.

Virus detection: the demand for differential diagnosis of respiratory tract infections is expected to drive the performance growth of related companies.

At present, novel coronavirus infection still occurs from time to time, with the arrival of autumn and winter, influenza A virus, influenza B virus and respiratory syncytial virus are also gradually active. As the symptoms after respiratory virus infection are similar, rapid and accurate differential diagnosis is of great significance for follow-up targeted treatment. Companies with respiratory virus detection products are expected to benefit, recommend Antu biology, suggest to pay attention to Inot, Mike biology, Wanfu biology, Shengxiang biology, Daan gene, master biology, Botuo biology and so on.

Cold medicine: the demand for Q4 cold medicine has entered the peak season, which is expected to speed up the clearance of social inventory.

At present, the rising trend of influenza epidemic in China is obvious, and with the continuous listing of multiple respiratory pathogen testing products and convenient diagnostic products, the means of virus detection inside and outside the hospital are more abundant, it is convenient for patients to use drugs in a timely and targeted manner, the demand for Q4 cold medicine is expected to exceed market expectations, the social inventory formed during COVID-19 's epidemic situation is expected to be cleared, and the performance of related enterprises will be strongly supported. Recommend Yiling Pharmaceutical and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, and suggest to pay attention to China Resources Sanjiu, Sunflower Pharmaceutical, Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, Guizhou Sanli, Jichuan Pharmaceutical, Special first Pharmaceutical and so on.

Risk Tips:

The risk that the market demand is lower than expected; the risk of the deterioration of the competition pattern.