If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. However, after investigating Oriental Energy (SZSE:002221), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Oriental Energy:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.031 = CN¥722m ÷ (CN¥41b - CN¥17b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
Thus, Oriental Energy has an ROCE of 3.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Oil and Gas industry average of 14%.
See our latest analysis for Oriental Energy
In the above chart we have measured Oriental Energy's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.
The Trend Of ROCE
On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Oriental Energy doesn't inspire confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 13%, but since then they've fallen to 3.1%. Meanwhile, the business is utilizing more capital but this hasn't moved the needle much in terms of sales in the past 12 months, so this could reflect longer term investments. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.
On a separate but related note, it's important to know that Oriental Energy has a current liabilities to total assets ratio of 43%, which we'd consider pretty high. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. While it's not necessarily a bad thing, it can be beneficial if this ratio is lower.
In Conclusion...
Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Oriental Energy's reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. And investors may be recognizing these trends since the stock has only returned a total of 13% to shareholders over the last five years. So if you're looking for a multi-bagger, the underlying trends indicate you may have better chances elsewhere.
One more thing to note, we've identified 1 warning sign with Oriental Energy and understanding it should be part of your investment process.
While Oriental Energy may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.