Top Education Group Ltd (HKG:1752) Shares May Have Slumped 28% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 11, 2023 18:07

Top Education Group Ltd (HKG:1752) shares have had a horrible month, losing 28% after a relatively good period beforehand. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 40% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Top Education Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.8x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Consumer Services industry is similar at about 1.2x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Check out our latest analysis for Top Education Group

SEHK:1752 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry October 11th 2023

What Does Top Education Group's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Top Education Group has been doing very well. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to taper off, which has kept the P/S from rising. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Top Education Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Top Education Group?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Top Education Group would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 44% gain to the company's top line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen the company endure a nasty 12% drop in revenue in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 21% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Top Education Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Top Education Group's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our look at Top Education Group revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with Top Education Group (including 1 which is a bit unpleasant).

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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