When it comes to investing, there are some useful financial metrics that can warn us when a business is potentially in trouble. Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. Having said that, after a brief look, Matthews International (NASDAQ:MATW) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Matthews International:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.031 = US$46m ÷ (US$1.9b - US$380m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

So, Matthews International has an ROCE of 3.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Commercial Services industry average of 8.5%.

Check out our latest analysis for Matthews International

In the above chart we have measured Matthews International's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

The Trend Of ROCE

The trend of ROCE at Matthews International is showing some signs of weakness. Unfortunately, returns have declined substantially over the last five years to the 3.1% we see today. In addition to that, Matthews International is now employing 29% less capital than it was five years ago. When you see both ROCE and capital employed diminishing, it can often be a sign of a mature and shrinking business that might be in structural decline. Typically businesses that exhibit these characteristics aren't the ones that tend to multiply over the long term, because statistically speaking, they've already gone through the growth phase of their life cycle.

In Conclusion...

To see Matthews International reducing the capital employed in the business in tandem with diminishing returns, is concerning. Despite the concerning underlying trends, the stock has actually gained 1.1% over the last five years, so it might be that the investors are expecting the trends to reverse. Either way, we aren't huge fans of the current trends and so with that we think you might find better investments elsewhere.

If you want to know some of the risks facing Matthews International we've found 2 warning signs (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

While Matthews International isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.