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The Total Return for China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) Investors Has Risen Faster Than Earnings Growth Over the Last Five Years

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 10, 2023 00:05

It hasn't been the best quarter for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 13% in that time. On the other hand the returns over the last half decade have not been bad. It's good to see the share price is up 58% in that time, better than its market return of 55%. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 47% decline over the last twelve months.

In light of the stock dropping 5.3% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

View our latest analysis for China Tourism Group Duty Free

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over half a decade, China Tourism Group Duty Free managed to grow its earnings per share at 8.2% a year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 10% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SHSE:601888 Earnings Per Share Growth October 10th 2023

Dive deeper into China Tourism Group Duty Free's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of China Tourism Group Duty Free's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of China Tourism Group Duty Free, it has a TSR of 63% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

China Tourism Group Duty Free shareholders are down 46% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 2.2%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 10%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that China Tourism Group Duty Free is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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