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Hold Rating for Triumph Financial: Navigating Freight Recession and TriumphPay’s Potential
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Hold Rating for Triumph Financial: Navigating Freight Recession and TriumphPay’s Potential

Triumph Financial (TFIN) has received a new Hold rating, initiated by Piper Sandler analyst, Frank Schiraldi.

Frank Schiraldi has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors surrounding Triumph Financial (TFIN). TFIN operates in a unique space within the banking sector, primarily catering to the U.S. for-hire trucking industry, with three main business segments: a community bank, a leading transportation factoring company, and its payment-based TriumphPay network. Earnings, in the short term, are expected to remain under pressure due to the current freight recession, which has lessened the earnings power of the highly profitable factoring business. However, the long-term outlook is largely dependent on the successful expansion and monetization of TriumphPay, which Schiraldi views as the primary value proposition. He sees the near-term earnings challenges as balanced against the long-term opportunity, leading to his neutral stance on the stock.
The valuation of TFIN is complex, largely due to its unique business lines and evolving narrative, and heavily influenced by an investor’s perspective on the potential of TriumphPay. This leads to a wide range of possible reasonable price points. A sum-of-the-parts analysis seems most reasonable, however, the lack of publicly-traded peers in the factoring business complicates assigning a multiple. Schiraldi believes it’s reasonable to assign a high-performing bank multiple to the factoring/banking business and a payments multiple to the future income anticipated from the TriumphPay segment. His 12-month price target of $60 takes into account a breakeven point for TriumphPay in 2024, with a ~10x multiple assigned to bank-only earnings of $2.28 in that year. He also factors in the significant potential of TriumphPay profitability.

According to TipRanks, Schiraldi is a 5-star analyst with an average return of 12.3% and a 54.55% success rate. Schiraldi covers the Financial sector, focusing on stocks such as First Commonwealth, Wsfs Financial, and Bancorp.

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Triumph Financial (TFIN) Company Description:

Triumph Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company which offers traditional banking and financial solutions. It operates through the following segments: Factoring, Banking and Corporate. The Factoring segment includes the operations of Triumph Business Capital which offers factoring services. The Banking segment relates to operations of TBK Bank, including loans originated under Triumph Commercial Finance, Triumph Healthcare Finance, and Triumph Premium Finance brands. The Corporate segment refers to the financing and investment activities, as well as the management and administrative expenses. The company was founded by Aaron P. Graft in November 2010 and is headquartered in Dallas, TX.

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