Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, long term White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (NYSE:WTM) shareholders have enjoyed a 75% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 50% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 16% , including dividends .
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
View our latest analysis for White Mountains Insurance Group
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the last half decade, White Mountains Insurance Group became profitable. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd expect the share price to be up. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. We can see that the White Mountains Insurance Group share price is up 74% in the last three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 42% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 20% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
A Different Perspective
White Mountains Insurance Group shareholders gained a total return of 16% during the year. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 12% over half a decade This suggests the company might be improving over time. Before spending more time on White Mountains Insurance Group it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.