[Anatomy Board]
I originally thought the Hong Kong stock market would be stable and excessive today, because A-shares closed the Xiaoyang line. However, the situation with Hong Kong stocks is even more complicated, and it simply cannot be maintained. Today, it directly reverses yesterday's positive line and hits a new low, with a weak decline of 1.36% throughout the day.
Peripheral adverse factors continue to affect the Hong Kong stock market. After the two parties in the Senate reached an agreement on a temporary solution, it seems that the Republican lawmakers who control the House of Representatives are still trying their best to block this agreement, which makes the possibility that the US government will shut down continue to rise. One point of disagreement is that the Biden administration provided $6 billion in new aid to Ukraine. This measure has provoked intense criticism from conservative Republican hardliners in the House of Representatives.
The national auto strike has been going on for almost two weeks. The UAW said that if negotiations with Detroit's top three automakers do not make significant progress, the scope of the strike will be extended this Friday. Currently, the strike does not seem to have much impact on consumers, because the three factories on strike mainly produce Jeep SUVs, mid-size Chevrolet pickups, Ford Mustang SUVs, and other models, and production only accounts for about 10% of the total production in North America. Additionally, every automaker has weeks worth of inventory at dealerships or in transit. However, if the time is extended, the potential impact cannot be ignored.
The US continues to maintain a high interest rate policy, creating a risk of spillover. Japan's Ministry of Finance: Last week, the sale of Japanese stocks by global funds reached a record high. In the week of September 22, net sales of Japanese stocks by foreign investors were 3025.3 billion yen, compared with net sales of 1578.4 billion yen the previous week. On the morning of September 28, the yield on Japanese 10-year treasury bonds rose to 0.75% for the first time since 2013; the yield on 20-year Japanese bonds rose 1.5 basis points to 1.475%, the highest since 2014/5. Foreign capital has been withdrawn at an accelerated pace, and Japan has once again staged a “triple kill on stock and debt.” The yen is approaching the 150 yuan mark. The Nikkei 225 index fell 2.00% during the day, and the Nikkei 225 index fell 2.00% during the day. Inevitably, the Hong Kong stock market will also be affected.
On the morning of September 28, Evergrande's listed companies China Evergrande, Evergrande Auto, and Evergrande Property collectively suspended trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The market is watching the further development of the situation. According to the Shenzhen Real Estate Agents Association, last week (September 18 to September 24), 888 second-hand housing units were traded in Shenzhen, down 0.4% from the previous month. The rise in the number of second-hand housing records was stopped, and the effects of the “buy a house without a loan” policy gradually weakened. Furthermore, the number of second-hand housing listings in Shenzhen continues to increase, and the number of effectively sold second-hand properties increased by 925 compared to last week. More is being sold and less is being bought. This situation continues to put pressure on real estate stocks.
In order to further stabilize and expand automobile consumption, cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Xi'an all released a series of support policies in September. Among them, the Shenzhen Longgang District Bureau of Industry and Information Technology issued a “policy package” to promote automobile consumption, issuing car purchase subsidies totaling 50 million yuan and a maximum of 15,000 yuan per vehicle; Xi'an announced the implementation rules for the distribution of consumption subsidies for new energy vehicles to promote steady consumption growth in 2023, which will grant one-time subsidies to residents who meet the relevant conditions to purchase new energy vehicles, with a total amount of 150 million yuan. According to statistics, with the exception of some provinces and cities that have not specified specific amounts in relevant policies, in the automobile consumption promotion policies issued in September, the total fiscal expenditure of each region is close to 600 million yuan. The problem now is that residents have no money, and there has been little success in relying on incentives. In an age of serious internal turmoil, they are fighting for core competitiveness. Currently, it seems that Xiaopeng (09868) is quite strong.
Speaking of gaming stocks, it is reasonable to say that the current situation is pretty good. Six casino operators are preparing an unprecedented lineup of events for the fourth quarter of this year. On the 11th Golden Week alone, there will be 8 events. For example, Chen Yixun will hold 9 concerts in a row three weeks after the National Day Golden Week. Additional growth is expected for gaming and non-gaming revenue. However, the trend is collectively downward. There are two reasons. The first is that the Macao government plans to criminalize the “money exchange party” issue, because in the past, these activities have led to other criminal acts such as fraud, illegal detentions, attacks, and even murders. Investors have no idea what impact the regulation of illegal foreign exchange transactions will have on the gaming industry; secondly, Japan is also planning to open a new casino, which will have an impact on the Macau gaming industry. Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Sands China (01928) both experienced breakdowns.
At around 9:00 a.m. on September 28, many new products, including @华为终端宣布华为Mate60 RS Extraordinary Master, Huawei MatePad Pro 13.2 inch, Huawei WatchUltimate Design Extraordinary Master, and Huawei Smart Screen V5 Pro, officially went on sale at 10:08 today. According to the official website, the Mate60 RS was already out of stock soon after it went on sale. The entire Mate60 line is in full swing, and the factory is working overtime to catch up with the construction schedule. The Huawei production chain is promising. Qiu Titanium Technology (01478) provides the Mate60Pro camera module, which is up nearly 6 points today. There is also China Software International (00354), which focuses on software. On the other hand, the Apple iPhone 15 Pro has been criticized for overheating during use or charging. Some analyses suggest that the overheating problem may be to make the weight lighter, compromises have been made to the cooling system design, such as the smaller heat dissipation area, and the use of titanium alloy affecting the cooling effect. Apple is expected to fix this issue through a system update, but the improvements are likely to be limited unless processor performance is reduced. Other problems have also been revealed, such as the camera being prone to dust ingress. Apple's mobile phone business accounts for half. Guochain seems to face the risk of cutting orders.
The US benchmark crude oil price hit 95 US dollars per barrel for the first time in over a year. Previously, stocks in Cushing, the main delivery site of US oil, fell to a critical low, highlighting the continuous expansion of the global supply gap. Shandong Molong (00568) benefited from the trend of shale oil and gas development+electric drive tenders. In the second half of the year, CNPC still had several batches of tenders gradually implemented. Today's increase was over 7 points. CNOOC (00883), CNPC Shares (00857), and CNOOC Oilfield Services (02883), and CNOOC Oilfield Services (02883), which were mainly mentioned in the sector yesterday, rose across the board. In addition, there is COSCO Marine (01138), which transports oil. The diet medicine theme mentioned yesterday has led to a return of enthusiasm for global pharmaceutical investment and continued popularity in the domestic primary and secondary markets. Kanglong Chemical (03759) has once again risen by more than 5 points.
In an age where there would be no rise without favorable conditions, Hong Kong stocks are indeed quite embarrassing. Many problems both overseas and domestic are difficult to be optimistic until they are effectively resolved. I'm looking forward to stimulating the market tomorrow and the last day before the holiday season.
[Sector Focus]
The state has continuously introduced policies in the field of vocational education to encourage listed companies and industry leaders to organize vocational education, and promote the integration of general employment and the integration of maternity and education. On September 12, the Ministry of Education announced the “Interim Measures on Administrative Penalties for Out-of-School Training” to the public. The “Measures” will take effect from October 15, 2023. The “Measures” are not spread online and require a complete ban on off-campus training, but rather to manage out-of-school training in accordance with the law, so that compliants can be protected, offenders pay the price, so that out-of-school training can run on the track of the rule of law, and promote the healthy development of the industry. According to Sullivan's estimates, in the vocational examination and training market, industry segments such as public examinations, public institution recruitment, and teacher recruitment will all maintain rapid growth. Judging from the competitive pattern, the CR5 in the FY21 vocational examination and training market is only 22.1%. The main varieties are: New Oriental-S (09901), chalk (02469), China Oriental Education (00667), and China Kepei (01890).
[Individual Stock Nuggets]
China Software International (00354): Deeply involved in the R&D and implementation of Huawei's core strategic business and signed a contract to become an important partner of Petrochemical Yingke
The company announced that on September 27, 2023, the company spent HK$27.4033 million to repurchase 5 million shares at a repurchase price of HK$5.44-5.51 per share. The company achieved steady management, with total revenue reaching 8.45 billion yuan, of which cloud intelligence business revenue reached 3.3 billion yuan, and net profit to parent reached 350 million yuan. The company's net profit increased 86.8% month-on-month, net interest rate increased 2.3 percentage points month-on-month, and operating quality rebounded sharply month-on-month.
Comment:Recently, the company has continued to buy back, and confidence in future business development continues to be unleashed. In the first half of the year, the company was deeply involved in the R&D and implementation of a series of core strategic businesses such as Huawei Hongmeng, smart cars, and AIGC. It binds 10% of the strategic platform capabilities represented by Huawei and signed a Pangu model cooperation agreement with HUAWEI CLOUD, becoming the first group of ecological partners of Baidu's “Wenxin One Word” ecological partner, as well as the Wenxin Qianfan Grand Model Platform. The company has officially passed various certifications such as the OpenEuler open source community and Kunpeng full-stack solution compatibility, and has won bids for mobile operating system migration projects, achieving continuous breakthroughs in the field of localized innovation. The company continues to deepen cooperation with Yonyou and Kingdee, reach a strategic cooperative relationship with Inspur, integrate the advantages of both parties to create joint solutions in the ERP field, and jointly expand the ERP market in key industries. The company joined forces with Beijing Polytechnic and Shenzhen Kaihong to open the first “Open Source Hongmeng Talent Class” for 985 colleges and universities to train a new generation of leading open source Hongmeng technology talents and accelerate the innovation and development of the national software industry. The company recently signed an information technology service framework agreement with Petrochemical Yingke. This cooperation marks a new breakthrough in the group's participation in the construction of technological innovation solutions in the key information infrastructure industry in China and the joint construction of a localized digital ecosystem with industry customers.
Hisense Home Appliances (00921): Net profit rapidly doubled, operating cash flow increased more than 4 times
In the first half of the year, the company achieved operating income of 42,944 billion yuan, up 12.10% year on year; net profit of 1,498 billion yuan, up 141.45% year on year; net profit after deducting non-net profit of 1,263 billion yuan, up 195.10% year on year; operating cash flow reached 3.812 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 429.43% year on year.
Comment:In the first half of the year, the company's revenue continued to grow, and net profit doubled rapidly. Domestic sales are growing at an impressive rate, and the profit of household air conditioners has improved markedly. 23H1's domestic sales revenue was 24.5 billion yuan (YoY +18%), and export revenue was 14.2 billion yuan (YoY -0.6%). HVAC business: 23H1 achieved revenue of 21.2 billion yuan (YoY +12%); Hisense CCTV increased steadily year after year, 23H1 business revenue YoY +12.5%, and net profit YoY +25.5%, of which multi-connection contributed greatly. Currently, the Hisense brand's offline fresh air market share has reached 36%; the operating profit margin of the Jiakong branch is 4%, which has turned a loss into a profit compared to 22 years. The online/offline share of refrigerators reached 15.09% and 17.46%, an increase of 1.56/0.43 pct, respectively; in the first half of the year, the efficiency of Hisense air conditioning single stores increased 19% year on year, Rongsheng refrigerator single-store efficiency increased 10% year on year, the number of new specialty stores added nearly 1,000, and the scale increased 25% year over year; new orders signed increased 106% over the same period. In the overseas market for home appliances, in the first half of the year, China Aircon's own brand revenue increased by 42%, and heat pump export revenue increased 106% year on year. Among them, washing machine exports grew rapidly in the first half of the year, revenue +57.9% year on year, and exports of the kitchen appliance business increased 128.2% year on year. The refrigerator production line in the Hisense Mexico Industrial Park has been put into production of various types of products, and the subsequent advancement of the globalization process is expected to drive an increase in overseas revenue.
Lijin Technology (00558): Receiving an increase in capital from the Advanced Manufacturing Fund, core business production capacity will expand at an accelerated pace
Recently, the company announced that Advanced Manufacturing conditionally agreed to subscribe from Shenzhen Lijin to expand its registered capital by no less than RMB 1.15 billion and not more than RMB 1.5 billion to increase its registered capital by no less than RMB 1.5 billion and not more than RMB 1.5 billion to increase its registered capital by no less than 9.47% and no more than 12% to increase its registered capital and capital reserve fund. The company's performance is steady, with a compound revenue growth rate of 13.1% in the 2019-2023 fiscal year. Die-casting machines are the core business. Business revenue for the 2023 fiscal year increased by 16%, the compound revenue growth rate for the last three fiscal years was 32.81%, and the annual revenue share was 75.1%.
Comment:This announcement is a major benefit to Lijin Technology. The introduction of advanced manufacturing can bring development capital to the company's core business, and it is expected that the production capacity of the die-casting machine business will accelerate. The company's large and oversized die-casting machines benefit from the lightweighting of new energy vehicles, and demand is good in the short to medium term. It is estimated that by 2025, the domestic/overseas large-scale die-casting machine market will be ~473.9 billion yuan. The latest growth point is the penetration of battery packs and A00 class models. In June of this year, the company was the first to ship 12,000 tons of equipment and announced that it would jointly develop 16,000 tons of super-large die-casting equipment with Guangdong Hongtu. It is expected that the development will be completed and delivered this year. The 16,000-ton equipment application scenario has been upgraded and can be used for integrated die-casting of A00 models of the same size. In terms of production capacity, the Shenzhen-Shantou smart factory that the company put into operation last year increased the company's production capacity by 30%, and the company expects the domestic Hangzhou Bay plant to be put into operation in September-October, with an annual production space of 4 billion yuan. Overseas, it plans to build new factories in Mumbai, India and Mexico, and upgrade production lines in Indiana and Stuttgart. Volkswagen and Xiaopeng Motor have reached a cooperation agreement to launch new electric models for the Chinese market in 2026. As Xiaopeng Motor's super-large die-casting machine supplier, Lijin Technology may continue to benefit.