The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report stating that the logistics industry sentiment index LPI showed a seasonal decline. Most of the sub-indices remained within the boom range, and logistics maintained a good operating trend. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index PMI has been increasing steadily. It has been rising steadily for 3 consecutive months, and large, medium, and medium-sized enterprises are working collaboratively to improve. The industry's warehousing-related inventory and other indicators continued to rise due to a rebound in the prices of raw materials and finished products. The level of storage rent and vacancy rates was still in the off-season range, and the warehousing vacancy rate declined during the peak season. Road freight volume continues to grow while prices remain stable, with air cargo performance leading the way.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
The logistics industry sentiment index LPI continued to decline, and most of the sub-indices remained within the boom range
In August 2023, due to a combination of factors such as slowing demand and heavy local rainfall, China's logistics sentiment index showed a seasonal decline this month, to 50.3, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; most of the sub-indices were resilient and still within the boom range, and business activity expectations remained steady, moderate and positive.
The manufacturing purchasing managers' index PMI is steadily increasing, and large, medium and small enterprises are working collaboratively for the better
The August PMI index was 49.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. It has been rising steadily for 3 consecutive months, indicating that the economy is running steadily and improving. Changes in the sub-index show that market demand is steadily increasing, production growth is accelerating, large, medium and small enterprises are operating collaboratively for the better, market prices are rising in a linked manner, business expectations are relatively optimistic, and the positive economic recovery momentum will be further consolidated.
The industry's warehousing-related inventories and other indicators continue to rise due to a rebound in the prices of raw materials and finished products, but the level of storage rents and vacancy rates is still in the off-season range
China's warehousing index in August was 52.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but it has been in the expansion range of more than 50% for seven consecutive months, indicating that the warehousing industry continues to maintain a good operating trend. Indices such as new orders, fee prices, and average inventory turnover have all rebounded, and indices such as business volume and business activity expectations also remained above the boom and bust line, indicating that demand for the warehousing business continues to pick up, commodity turnover efficiency continues to improve, the production and operation conditions of enterprises are good, and future expectations are relatively optimistic. The new supply of general warehouses nationwide was 1,488,000 square meters, down 27.4% from the previous month, down 19.1% from August last year. Guangzhou, Xiaogan, and Suzhou ranked in the top three; the average rent in the general storage market in 32 cities across the country continued to drop slightly to 25.4 yuan/m2/month; and the warehouse vacancy rate fell to 13.3% after entering the peak stocking period.
Road cargo volume continues to grow while prices remain stable, and air cargo performance continues to lead
Despite entering the off-season, freight volume continued to rise month-on-month, but prices remained stable: freight volume is expected to increase 10.1% year on year and 2.3% month on month; the road logistics freight rate index is basically the same as the same period last year, but overall prices are still superior to previous years, and the structure has not changed. In August, travel chain repair continued to drive the supply of passenger aircraft belly resources and cargo recovery. Domestic air cargo shipments are expected to be 401,000 tons, an increase of 10.0% over the previous year.