兴业证券孙媛媛:医药已见底 未来半年或一年最看好三个方向

Sun Yuanyuan of Societe Generale Securities: Pharmaceuticals have bottomed out and the three most promising directions for the next six months or years

Zhitong Finance ·  09/20 08:50

The Zhitong Finance App learned that recently, Sun Yuanyuan, chief analyst of the pharmaceutical industry at Societe Generale Securities, said that pharmaceuticals have bottomed out, and there are still great investment opportunities in the future. Now is a relatively good time to invest. Overall, both inside and outside the hospital showed a positive trend. The recovery of rigid demand on this line within the hospital is unstoppable; the line outside of the hospital is also gradually stabilizing and rebounding.In the next six months or years, I am most optimistic about the three directions: medicine, consumption, and technology.

Sun Yuanyuan said,In the short term, I can't see any more downsides, including the pressure on short-term performance, which has been fully reflected, so in this position, it is a bottom. In the medium to long term, the pharmaceutical industry's medium- to long-term logic is still positive, and short-term supply-side reforms have not affected its demand-side logic. From a medium- to long-term perspective,Sun YuanyuanIt is full of confidence, and is in a low position in the short term. As far as investment is concerned, buying the right price at the bottom is a very good investment method for investors. Therefore, medicine is really worth focusing on right now.

Inside the hospital, everyone can take a look at the situation in the second quarter. Overall, the growth rate within the hospital is still quite good. Recently, due to some policy changes, the growth rate within the hospital has slowed slightly, but this will bring more margin to next year, and we will see a faster growth rate next year. Overall, the recovery in rigid demand within the hospital is unstoppable.

The line outside of the hospital is actually quite consumptive. In the second quarter, people's overall sentiment about this area was low. However, currently, judging from the tracking situation in the third quarter, its year-on-year ratio, including the month-on-month ratio, is actually gradually recovering steadily.

Because inside and outside of hospitals basically account for most of the medical sector, from a fundamental point of view, this sector gradually improves only a matter of time.

Furthermore, medicine is still an industry dominated by technology. Judging from overall investment intentions and investment and financing data, from a global perspective, because the year on year may have a high base from last year. However, if you look at the month-on-month ratio, although there are some fluctuations from month to month, overall investment and financing intentions are gradually increasing.

The essential reason is that in the pharmaceutical field, many major product cycles are about to come. For example, some new drug product cycles are coming out, including well-known weight loss drugs, including (treating) Alzheimer's disease (Alzheimer's disease).Overall,Investment and financing intentions in this industry are increasing.

Sun Yuanyuan emphasized,In the next six months or years, I am most optimistic about the three directions: medicine, consumption, and technology.

First, let's talk about the pharmaceutical industry.The current stage of the pharmaceutical industry is very similar to 2017 and 2018, when many supply-side reform policies were introduced. For companies undergoing this policy change, there will indeed be some pain at the time. However, after 2018, medicine ushered in a three-year bull market.

At this stage, firstly, it is very similar; furthermore, in terms of overall valuation, including valuation premiums and positions, it has even broken the lowest position at the time; third, from a policy point of view, there are very favorable international policies. For example, the expansion of health insurance and commercial insurance is a very important policy in medicine. The changes it can bring about in the future are that the overall pharmaceutical market can be expanded.

Previously, if only medicine were covered by medical insurance, medicine as a whole would basically account for 5%-6% of GDP. If commercial insurance is opened up in the future, the share of health insurance in GDP will increase further. Overseas countries account for this kind of GDP in the 15%-20% range. In terms of the long-term direction of the overall policy, this kind of payment method reform will have a great effect on the overall pharmaceutical market, including the expansion of total market value in the future.

Recently, at the policy level, these policies have all been introduced. Only in the short term, people may be attracted (attracted) by supply-side reform policies. If they pay attention to this, they are ignoring demand-side expansion policies. When everyone gradually adapts to supply-side reform policies, and high-quality enterprises gradually come out with product power and innovation, the future prospects of the pharmaceutical industry are still very good. This is the first race track.

Second track, consumption.There is a certain correlation between medicine and consumption, and consumption is also a procyclical race track that will gradually benefit in the later stages. Consumption. Although short-term confidence is still gradually recovering, in the long run, some very high-quality companies in consumption, their business models, including their long-term resilience, are still worth paying attention to.

From a short-term perspective, in the consumer sector, it is best to choose something that is relatively rigid in demand, is also relatively resilient, and has a relatively good performance growth rate (target). In the future, you can gradually pay attention to some other targets.

Then there's technology.Medicine is actually a combination of consumption plus technology. In the technology industry, Sun Yuanyuan is also very optimistic about technology segments that can actually break down barriers and at the same time have a place in the international market in the future.

Sun Yuanyuan believes that the pharmaceutical industry, whether in terms of direction or flexibility,The innovative drug sector is the most optimistic.

First, its valuation is low in all aspects, including positions; in terms of catalysts, it is facing upward policy catalysis; in addition, it is facing a new product cycle. Therefore, this industry will be very explosive. If you want flexibility, innovative drugs will be the first choice. Here, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are fine.

In the second segment, we can focus on ophthalmology in consumer medicine. Ophthalmology is a very rigid racetrack in consumer medicine. Since the third quarter, this track has shown a steady and upward trend in performance, so we can also pay attention to this area.

Third, it is recommended to pay attention to some high-quality platform-based companies that have been adjusted (come) from the bottom up, so they can be tracked. For example, the leading company in CRO and CDMO; there are also some high-quality platform-based companies, including medical devices.

It can be said that since they went public, it has been difficult for these companies to fall to the current cheap position, and their long-term logic has not changed. Although they are still under the influence of various factors in the short term, these companies can pay very focused attention.

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