The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that the 2023 summer program is over, the National Day festival is approaching, and that 10 films, including “Volunteers: Soldiers Attack,” “Seems Not So Hot,” “Former 4: Early Marriage in the UK,” and “Strong as a Rock,” are scheduled to be screened on the National Day program. The bank predicts that the box office for the 2023 National Day program (September 29 to October 6), including service fees, is expected to reach 43.8/48.6/5.40 billion yuan under conservative/neutral/optimistic conditions, respectively. The growth rate compared to the 2019 National Day program is -2.0%/8.7%/20.8%, respectively. The bank believes that the summer program lays a good foundation for recovery, and expects the National Day program to perform steadily at the box office.
The main views of CICC are as follows:
The summer program came to a successful conclusion, and the box office, number of movie viewers, and average ticket prices all reached record highs.
The 2023 summer program (June 1 to August 31) achieved a total box office of 20.62 billion yuan including service fees, an increase of 15.9% over 2019, breaking the box office record for the summer program in film history. The number of movie viewers and average ticket prices also reached new highs. On the content side, the supply of content for the 2023 summer program was relatively adequate, and high-quality domestic films became a key factor supporting the box office. “Desperate” and “Her Disappearing” all grossed over 3.5 billion yuan; “Fengshen Part I” and “In the Octagon” box-office grossed over 2 billion yuan, and the leading films blossomed; on the channel side, the summer program continued to sink but the rate of sinking slowed slightly; the overall increase in market activity led to a decrease in the market share of leading film investment companies, but the film company pattern was still relatively stable.
The National Day program has many leading films of various types, and the box office may have great flexibility in terms of growth.
Films that have already been scheduled for the National Day include “Volunteers: Soldiers Attack”, “It Doesn't Seem So Hot”, “Former 4: Early Marriage in the UK,” “Firm as a Rock,” and “Operation Moscow.” The supply of leading films is relatively adequate and diverse. The bank believes that the competition for the top titles of this National Day film is relatively intense, and the box office performance is relatively balanced. The word-of-mouth performance of the film and after its release may determine whether the film can successfully break through. The bank believes that after the diverse and high-quality content of the summer program boosted the restoration of users' movie-watching habits, the audience's enthusiasm for watching movies was still lingering. Demand for watching movies settled down during the off-season in September, or was released centrally once again during the National Day program.
The bank estimates that under conservative/neutral/optimistic conditions, the box office of the National Day program, including service fees, will be 43.8/48.6/5.40 billion yuan, respectively.
1) Number of viewers: The bank believes that the supply of National Day top films is relatively sufficient, and the genres are rich and diverse, and are expected to better mobilize audience demand. The top films all have the potential to impact high box office; 2) Average ticket price: The bank believes that, with reference to the average ticket price situation for key programs in 2023, National Day ticket prices may continue to grow; 3) Box office: The bank predicts that the 2023 National Day program (September 29 to October 6), the box office with service fees is expected to reach 43.8/58.6/ 400 million yuan, up from the 2019 National Day program The speeds were -2.0%/8.7%/20.8%, respectively.
Risk warning:Video content quality and box office fell short of expectations, competition intensified, and industry regulation was tightened.