The Zhitong Finance App learned that recently, well-known analyst Guo Mingyi once again shared an analysis report on Huawei's self-developed Kirin (Kirin) processor, sayingQualcomm (QCOM.US) is the main loser for Huawei to adopt the new Kirin chip. Guo Mingyi said that since Huawei uses a new Kirin processor,It is expected that Qualcomm's SoC shipments to Chinese smartphone brands in 2024 will be reduced by at least 50-60 million units compared to 2023, and will decline year by year. Furthermore, in order to maintain Qualcomm's market share in the Chinese market,The price war is likely to begin as soon as the fourth quarter of 2023.
According to Guo Mingyi's analysis, Huawei purchased 23 million to 25 million and 40 million to 42 million mobile phone SoCs from Qualcomm in 2022 and 2023, respectively.However, it is expected that starting in 2024, Huawei's new models will fully use the Kirin processor developed independently. Therefore, starting in 2024, QualcommNot only will it completely lose orders from Huawei, but it will also face the risk of a decline in shipments to non-Huawei Chinese brand customers due to competition from Huawei.
Two other potential risks Qualcomm faces are:Exynos 2400's market share in Samsung phones is higher than expected and Apple (AAPL.US) is expected to use its own modem chips starting in 2025. Guo Mingyi said that in order to launch its own 5G baseband, Apple has been secretly preparing for more than five years, and it also acquired most of Intel's smartphone modem business in 2019. Apple's self-developed 5G baseband may now be used on the new iPhone SE, but if there are no problems with the test, it may only be used on the iPhone main generation.
Earlier, Guo Mingyi released a report stating that the estimated shipment volume of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro has increased markedly, and that Huawei's influence on the industry and stock market is returning. According to market trends,The cumulative shipment volume of the Mate 60 Pro is expected to reach at least 12 million units 12 months after sale. The report also predicts that, benefiting from the demand and market influence of the Mate 60 Pro, shipments of Huawei phones in 2023 will increase by about 65% year-on-year to 38 million units.Looking ahead to 2024, Huawei's mobile phone shipments are expected to reach at least 60 million unitsIt has become the one with the strongest shipping growth momentum among global mobile phone brands.