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Is The Market Rewarding NagaCorp Ltd. (HKG:3918) With A Negative Sentiment As A Result Of Its Mixed Fundamentals?

Simply Wall St ·  08/27/2023 10:49

NagaCorp (HKG:3918) has had a rough three months with its share price down 18%. It is possible that the markets have ignored the company's differing financials and decided to lean-in to the negative sentiment. Stock prices are usually driven by a company's financial performance over the long term, and therefore we decided to pay more attention to the company's financial performance. Specifically, we decided to study NagaCorp's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for NagaCorp

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for NagaCorp is:

7.1% = US$138m ÷ US$1.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each HK$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made HK$0.07 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of NagaCorp's Earnings Growth And 7.1% ROE

On the face of it, NagaCorp's ROE is not much to talk about. However, its ROE is similar to the industry average of 6.6%, so we won't completely dismiss the company. Having said that, NagaCorp's five year net income decline rate was 44%. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with. So that's what might be causing earnings growth to shrink.

Next, when we compared with the industry, which has shrunk its earnings at a rate of 13% in the same 5-year period, we still found NagaCorp's performance to be quite bleak, because the company has been shrinking its earnings faster than the industry.

past-earnings-growth
SEHK:3918 Past Earnings Growth August 27th 2023

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if NagaCorp is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is NagaCorp Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

While the company did payout a portion of its dividend in the past, it currently doesn't pay a dividend. This implies that potentially all of its profits are being reinvested in the business.

Conclusion

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about NagaCorp's performance. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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