Zhitong Financial APP learned that according to a research report released by Tianfeng Securities, the production of some agricultural products in China faces extreme weather, the risk of diseases and insect pests, and so on. In the short term,There may be a gap between supply and demand for some agricultural products.China will further enhance the importance of the "food security" policy, and the landing of the policy will drive the development opportunities of some sub-sectors. In response to a reporter's question on the current economic situation and economic work on July 31, 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned that we should thoroughly implement the strategy of storing grain in the land and technology, promote the revitalization of the seed industry, and strengthen agricultural science and technology and equipment support. In the context of food securityChina's genetically modified policy continues to be introduced.The direction of biological breeding is firm. Companies with rich reserves of genetically modified technology are expected to gain first-mover advantage in the market of genetically modified seeds.
The main points of ▍ Skywind Securities are as follows:
The recent typhoon caused heavy precipitation, affecting a wide range.
Typhoon du Surui made landfall from the southeast coast, causing extreme precipitation in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The daily precipitation of 14 meteorological stations in Beijing (2), Hebei (10), Shanxi (1) and Shandong (1) broke through the historical extreme value. Du Suri further influenced the Northeast, and "Kanu" may take over.
Heavy precipitation and waterlogging occurred in many regions, involving many major grain-producing provinces.
In terms of rice, many provinces along the way affected by typhoons are important rice producing areas in China, of which rice production in Heilongjiang accounts for 14%, and farmland in Wuchang City, a big rice city, is seriously affected by precipitation. In terms of corn, many provinces affected by heavy precipitation, such as Hebei, Henan, Shandong and Heilongjiang, are all important corn producing areas in China, with a total yield exceeding 60% of China's national corn output, and corn lodging has occurred in some areas due to heavy precipitation.
Heavy precipitation exerts some pressure on crop yields.
1) Rice: at this time, it is the flowering and heading stage of rice in some areas. if water enters the shell at this time, the grain is not easy to form rice and is easy to become empty shell; waterlogging causes poor ventilation of rice roots, which is easy to cause rice death and increase the possibility of rice diseases. A total of 37396.27 hectares of crops were affected by Typhoon du Surui, of which 1701.76 hectares were destroyed, the Fujian Provincial Flood Control Office reported on Aug. 1. In the northeast region, the meteorological risk of the occurrence and development of rice blast is high in most of Liaoning, central Jilin and Sanjiang Plain of Heilongjiang Province in the first half of August.
2) Maize: precipitation soaking caused root growth retardation or even death, strong wind caused maize lodging, in addition, the possibility of maize disease increased. According to the forecast of the National Agricultural Technology Center, corn southern rust occurred in most of the Jiangnan and Huang-Huai-Hai summer corn producing areas this year, posing a great threat to the safety of corn production. The occurrence area of the whole country is 80 million mu, and the epidemic period is from mid-August to mid-September. About 7 days after the occurrence of rust, corn leaves will be covered with orange spores, causing the leaves to lose the nutrient supply of photosynthesis, resulting in a yield loss of up to 20% and 40%.
The bank believes that: 1) the production of some agricultural products in China is facing extreme weather, the risk of diseases and insect pests, and so on. In the short term, there may be a gap between supply and demand for some agricultural products.
2) China will further enhance the importance of the "food security" policy, and the landing of the policy will drive the development opportunities of some sub-sectors. In response to a reporter's question on the current economic situation and economic work on July 31, 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned that we should thoroughly implement the strategy of storing grain in the land and technology, promote the revitalization of the seed industry, and strengthen agricultural science and technology and equipment support.
In the context of food security, China's transgenic policy continues to be introduced, and the direction of biological breeding is firm. Companies with rich reserves of genetically modified technology are expected to gain first-mover advantage in the market of genetically modified seeds.
Recommended concerns are as follows:
Seed plate: [Longping High Technology] (000998.SZ), etc.
Planting plate: [Suken Agricultural Development] (601952.SH) (planting leading company).
Compound fertilizer plate: [new Yangfeng] (000902.SZ) (domestic phosphate fertilizer, compound fertilizer leading company).
Risk Tips:
Lower-than-expected rise in food prices, policy change risk, natural disaster / pest risk.