Shanghai Securities released a research report, first given ZTO Express-W (02057) "buy" rating, express delivery volume, that China's express market is expected to continue to maintain double-digit growth trend in 2023-25, the company's market share is expected to continue to increase. It is also predicted that its express delivery business volume in 2023-25 will be 30.14 billion votes, 35.92 billion votes and 41.09 billion tickets, an increase of 23.6%, 19.1% and 14.4% over the same period last year. In terms of performance, the bank forecasts a net profit of 9.02 billion yuan, 10.41 billion yuan and 12.01 billion yuan.
Live e-commerce has risen rapidly in recent years and has become one of the incremental markets of the express delivery industry, and is expected to continue to promote the continuous growth of express delivery business in the future, with an annual growth rate of about 15% in 2023, the report said. In terms of price, after the express price war in 2021 was stopped by the regulatory authorities, with the introduction of relevant policies, the single ticket price returned to a reasonable range. In 2022, express delivery companies will focus on reducing costs, increasing efficiency and improving service quality again. The bank believes that "scale is king" is still the core advantage of the express industry competition, superimposed superior cost control capabilities, in order to seize the active position in the price competition, lower-cost express enterprises are expected to have greater opportunities for development.