Xinhua News Media Holdings Limited (HKG:309) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 31% gain in the last month alone. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 15% over that time.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Xinhua News Media Holdings' P/S ratio of 0.4x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Commercial Services industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

View our latest analysis for Xinhua News Media Holdings

How Xinhua News Media Holdings Has Been Performing

Xinhua News Media Holdings has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing revenue at a reasonable pace. Perhaps the expectation moving forward is that the revenue growth will track in line with the wider industry for the near term, which has kept the P/S subdued. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Xinhua News Media Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 2.9% gain to the company's revenues. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with revenue shrinking 34% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 14% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Xinhua News Media Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Xinhua News Media Holdings appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

The fact that Xinhua News Media Holdings currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Having said that, be aware Xinhua News Media Holdings is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is concerning.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.