来源:Wind
美国股市周二在美联储主席鲍威尔讲话后全线跳水,美债收益率攀升。
标准普尔500指数下跌0.7%,此前一天该基准指数曾上涨。道琼斯工业指数下跌0.5%,纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.8%。
鲍威尔于美国东部时间上午10点出席参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会(Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs)的听证会。他警告称,美联储官员为对抗高通胀而加息的幅度将超过他们此前的预期。
上个月,美联储将基准联邦基金利率上调0.25个百分点,至4.5%至4.75%之间。继去年12月和11月分别加息50个基点和0.75个基点后,美联储放慢了加息步伐。
一些投资者表示,美联储可能会在3月21-22日的会议上再次加速加息,以回应数据显示持续的通胀和强劲的劳动力市场。芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group)的数据显示,利率期货交易员认为美联储加息50个基点的概率约为四分之一,再加息25个基点的概率为四分之三。
汇丰资产管理公司(HSBC Asset Management)首席策略师利特尔(Joseph Little)预计,鲍威尔将在不寻求鼓励市场预期比目前预期的加息幅度更大的情况下,为加息提供理由。他认为美联储将在年中之前将利率提高到5.5%左右,然后随着经济陷入衰退,在2023年底降息。
美国2年期国债收益率周二跳升,因投资者评估美联储主席鲍威尔的言论,鲍威尔表示,美联储可能需要再次加快加息步伐。
2年期美国国债上涨8个基点,至4.979%,为2007年来最高水平。与此同时,基准的10年期美国国债收益率上涨3bp至3.987%。
“最新的经济数据强于预期,这表明利率的最终水平可能高于此前的预期,”鲍威尔在讲话中说。鲍威尔补充说:“如果所有数据都表明加快紧缩是有必要的,我们将准备加快加息步伐。”
美联储在过去一年里一直在实施政策措施,包括自2022年3月以来连续八次加息,以努力为经济降温并缓解通胀。
投资者对加息步伐将美国经济拖入衰退的担忧已经在投资者中蔓延,并促使许多人希望美联储今年暂停加息。
最近几周,美联储官员暗示利率可能会继续走高,并在更长时间内保持在高位。与此同时,最新一轮通胀数据显示,物价上涨带来的压力仍在持续。
1月批发和消费者通胀数据均上升,高于月度预期,1月个人消费支出价格指数也高于预期。后者是美联储青睐的通胀指标之一。本周将有一系列新的就业市场数据出炉,包括周五的2月就业报告。
编辑/jayden
Source: Wind
U. S. stocks plunged Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke, and U. S. bond yields rose.
The s & p 500 fell 0.7%, a day after the benchmark index rose. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.5% and the NASDAQ fell 0.8%.
Powell appeared before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs (Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs) at 10:00 et. He warned that Fed officials would raise interest rates more than they had expected to fight high inflation.
Last month, the fed raised its benchmark federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to between 4.5% and 4.75%. The Fed slowed the pace of rate hikes after raising interest rates by 50 basis points in December and 0.75 basis points in November.
Some investors say the Fed is likely to accelerate interest rate hikes again at its March 21-22 meeting in response to data showing persistent inflation and a strong labour market. Interest rate futures traders think there is a 1/4 chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points and another 25 basis points by 3/4, according to CME Group Inc Group (CME Group).
Joseph Little, chief strategist at HSBC Asset Management, expects Mr Powell to justify the rate hike without seeking to encourage the market to expect a bigger rate rise than is currently expected. He thinks the fed will raise interest rates to around 5.5% by the middle of the year and then cut them at the end of 2023 as the economy slips into recession.
The yield on the two-year Treasury note jumped on Tuesday as investors reviewed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Powell that the Fed may need to accelerate the pace of rate hikes again.
The two-year Treasury note rose 8 basis points to 4.979 per cent, the highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 3bp to 3.987%.
"the latest economic data are stronger than expected, suggesting that the final level of interest rates may be higher than previously expected," Powell said in a speech. Powell added: "if all the data show that accelerated tightening is necessary, we will be prepared to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes."
The Fed has been implementing policy measures over the past year, including eight consecutive interest rate increases since March 2022 in an effort to cool the economy and ease inflation.
Investor concerns about the pace of interest rate hikes dragging the US economy into recession have spread among investors and prompted many to hope that the Fed will suspend rate hikes this year.
In recent weeks, Fed officials have hinted that interest rates may continue to rise and stay high for a longer time. At the same time, the latest round of inflation data shows that the pressure of rising prices continues.
Both wholesale and consumer inflation data rose in January, higher than monthly expectations, and the price index of personal consumption expenditure in January was also higher than expected. The latter is one of the Fed's preferred indicators of inflation. A series of new job market data will be released this week, including Friday's February jobs report.
Edit / jayden