Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, COSCO SHIPPING Development Co., Ltd. (HKG:2866) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for COSCO SHIPPING Development
What Is COSCO SHIPPING Development's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2022 COSCO SHIPPING Development had CN¥93.6b of debt, an increase on CN¥84.7b, over one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥16.2b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥77.5b.
A Look At COSCO SHIPPING Development's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that COSCO SHIPPING Development had liabilities of CN¥53.1b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥50.5b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥16.2b in cash and CN¥5.48b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥81.9b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥28.2b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, COSCO SHIPPING Development would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
While COSCO SHIPPING Development's debt to EBITDA ratio of 10.5 suggests a heavy debt load, its interest coverage of 7.0 implies it services that debt with ease. Our best guess is that the company does indeed have significant debt obligations. Importantly, COSCO SHIPPING Development's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 23% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since COSCO SHIPPING Development will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, COSCO SHIPPING Development saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both COSCO SHIPPING Development's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Considering all the factors previously mentioned, we think that COSCO SHIPPING Development really is carrying too much debt. To our minds, that means the stock is rather high risk, and probably one to avoid; but to each their own (investing) style. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for COSCO SHIPPING Development (1 is significant) you should be aware of.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.