Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company's outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Vail Resorts's outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
Check out our latest analysis for Vail Resorts
Is Vail Resorts Still Cheap?
Vail Resorts appears to be expensive according to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average. I've used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there's not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock's ratio of 29.27x is currently well-above the industry average of 19.07x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Vail Resorts's share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
Can we expect growth from Vail Resorts?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let's also take a look at the company's future expectations. Vail Resorts' earnings growth are expected to be in the teens in the upcoming years, indicating a solid future ahead. This should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in MTN's positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe MTN should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping an eye on MTN for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for MTN, which means it's worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
If you'd like to know more about Vail Resorts as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 3 warning signs with Vail Resorts, and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you are no longer interested in Vail Resorts, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.