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Institutional Owners May Ignore Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) Recent US$351m Market Cap Decline as Longer-term Profits Stay in the Green

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 20, 2023 07:10

Every investor in Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder groups. And the group that holds the biggest piece of the pie are institutions with 78% ownership. Put another way, the group faces the maximum upside potential (or downside risk).

Institutional investors was the group most impacted after the company's market cap fell to US$6.3b last week. Still, the 31% one-year gains may have helped mitigate their overall losses. We would assume however, that they would be on the lookout for weakness in the future.

Let's delve deeper into each type of owner of Harley-Davidson, beginning with the chart below.

View our latest analysis for Harley-Davidson

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NYSE:HOG Ownership Breakdown January 20th 2023

What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Harley-Davidson?

Many institutions measure their performance against an index that approximates the local market. So they usually pay more attention to companies that are included in major indices.

Harley-Davidson already has institutions on the share registry. Indeed, they own a respectable stake in the company. This implies the analysts working for those institutions have looked at the stock and they like it. But just like anyone else, they could be wrong. It is not uncommon to see a big share price drop if two large institutional investors try to sell out of a stock at the same time. So it is worth checking the past earnings trajectory of Harley-Davidson, (below). Of course, keep in mind that there are other factors to consider, too.

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NYSE:HOG Earnings and Revenue Growth January 20th 2023

Investors should note that institutions actually own more than half the company, so they can collectively wield significant power. It looks like hedge funds own 8.7% of Harley-Davidson shares. That worth noting, since hedge funds are often quite active investors, who may try to influence management. Many want to see value creation (and a higher share price) in the short term or medium term. Looking at our data, we can see that the largest shareholder is The Vanguard Group, Inc. with 8.8% of shares outstanding. For context, the second largest shareholder holds about 8.7% of the shares outstanding, followed by an ownership of 7.7% by the third-largest shareholder.

We did some more digging and found that 10 of the top shareholders account for roughly 51% of the register, implying that along with larger shareholders, there are a few smaller shareholders, thereby balancing out each others interests somewhat.

While it makes sense to study institutional ownership data for a company, it also makes sense to study analyst sentiments to know which way the wind is blowing. Quite a few analysts cover the stock, so you could look into forecast growth quite easily.

Insider Ownership Of Harley-Davidson

While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. The company management answer to the board and the latter should represent the interests of shareholders. Notably, sometimes top-level managers are on the board themselves.

I generally consider insider ownership to be a good thing. However, on some occasions it makes it more difficult for other shareholders to hold the board accountable for decisions.

Our data suggests that insiders own under 1% of Harley-Davidson, Inc. in their own names. It's a big company, so even a small proportional interest can create alignment between the board and shareholders. In this case insiders own US$31m worth of shares. Arguably, recent buying and selling is just as important to consider. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

General Public Ownership

The general public-- including retail investors -- own 13% stake in the company, and hence can't easily be ignored. While this size of ownership may not be enough to sway a policy decision in their favour, they can still make a collective impact on company policies.

Next Steps:

I find it very interesting to look at who exactly owns a company. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Harley-Davidson that you should be aware of.

Ultimately the future is most important. You can access this free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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