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For the week ended December 18, restaurants witnessed softer sales stemming from weather issues and also a tougher spending backdrop with consumers potentially reallocating spending during the holiday season.
Same-store sales for the week were up 1% vs. +5% in the first two weeks of December, +6% in November, +7% in October, and +5% in Q3, according to Baird real-time weekly restaurants survey.
The sample size included chains ~$12-13B in annualized sales.
One year comparisons: Casual dining -7%; fast casual +10%; quick-service -4%.
Softer three-year comparisons reflect weaker trend in all segments with sales +14% vs. +18% in the first two weeks of December. Segment-wise three-year comparison: fast-casual +22% (vs. +24% in prior two weeks), quick-service +14% (vs. 19%), and casual dining -2% (vs. +1%).
The remaining of December and Q4 may be impacted by holiday calendar shifts and a higher proportion of sales on weekends.
Stocks on the watch: BJ's Restaurants (BJRI); Dutch Bros (BROS); The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE); Chuy's (CHUY); Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG); Domino's Pizza (DPZ); Darden Restaurants (DRI); Jack in the Box (JACK); El Pollo Loco (LOCO); McDonald's (MCD); Portillo's (PTLO); Restaurant Brands International (QSR); Starbucks (SBUX); Shake Shack (SHAK); Texas RoadHouse (TXRH); Wingstop (WING); Yum! Brands (YUM)