Does the December share price for Shennan Circuit Company Limited (SZSE:002916) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
See our latest analysis for Shennan Circuit
What's The Estimated Valuation?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)||CN¥1.00b||CN¥1.60b||CN¥2.09b||CN¥2.55b||CN¥2.97b||CN¥3.34b||CN¥3.67b||CN¥3.96b||CN¥4.21b||CN¥4.44b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x2||Analyst x1||Est @ 30.41%||Est @ 22.24%||Est @ 16.53%||Est @ 12.53%||Est @ 9.73%||Est @ 7.77%||Est @ 6.40%||Est @ 5.44%|
|Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 10%||CN¥910||CN¥1.3k||CN¥1.6k||CN¥1.7k||CN¥1.8k||CN¥1.9k||CN¥1.8k||CN¥1.8k||CN¥1.7k||CN¥1.7k|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥16b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥4.4b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (10%– 3.2%) = CN¥64b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥64b÷ ( 1 + 10%)10= CN¥24b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥40b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥76.3, the company appears about fair value at a 3.0% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.SZSE:002916 Discounted Cash Flow December 15th 2022
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Shennan Circuit as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.098. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Shennan Circuit
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Balance sheet summary for 002916.
- Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electronic market.
- Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.
- See 002916's dividend history.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Shennan Circuit, we've put together three relevant elements you should assess:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Shennan Circuit you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does 002916's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.