In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002088) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Luyang Energy-Saving Materials
What's The Estimated Valuation?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)||CN¥500.0m||CN¥523.7m||CN¥546.1m||CN¥567.7m||CN¥588.9m||CN¥609.9m||CN¥631.0m||CN¥652.3m||CN¥674.0m||CN¥696.2m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Est @ 5.39%||Est @ 4.74%||Est @ 4.27%||Est @ 3.95%||Est @ 3.73%||Est @ 3.57%||Est @ 3.46%||Est @ 3.38%||Est @ 3.33%||Est @ 3.29%|
|Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2%||CN¥458||CN¥439||CN¥419||CN¥399||CN¥379||CN¥360||CN¥341||CN¥323||CN¥305||CN¥289|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.7b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥696m× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (9.2%– 3.2%) = CN¥12b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥12b÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)10= CN¥5.0b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥8.7b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥21.8, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.SZSE:002088 Discounted Cash Flow December 15th 2022
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Luyang Energy-Saving Materials as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.926. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Luyang Energy-Saving Materials
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
- Dividend information for 002088.
- Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Chemicals industry.
- Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.
- What else are analysts forecasting for 002088?
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For Luyang Energy-Saving Materials, there are three further items you should further examine:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Luyang Energy-Saving Materials you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does 002088's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.