Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. For example the Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd (SZSE:002839) share price dropped 60% over five years. We certainly feel for shareholders who bought near the top. Furthermore, it's down 18% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 9.0% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.
With the stock having lost 4.5% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
View our latest analysis for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
While the share price declined over five years, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 13% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.
In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 12% a year in the five year period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
SZSE:002839 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 21st 2022
We know that Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? You can see what analysts are predicting for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank the TSR over the last 5 years was -55%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 8.8% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 17%. Of far more concern is the 9% p.a. loss served to shareholders over the last five years. While the losses are slowing we doubt many shareholders are happy with the stock. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank you should know about.
Of course Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
一般來説,長期投資是一條可行的道路。但這並不意味着長期投資者可以避免鉅額虧損。例如,江蘇張家港市農村商業銀行股份有限公司(SZSE:002839)股價在五年內下跌了60%。我們當然同情那些在接近頂端時買入的股東。此外,它在大約四分之一的時間裏下跌了18%。對於持有者來説,這並不是什麼樂趣。當然,在此期間,這一股價走勢很可能受到了大盤9.0%跌幅的影響。
鑑於該公司股價在過去一週下跌了4.5%,我們有必要看看它的業務表現,看看是否有任何危險信號。
查看我們對江蘇張家港農村商業銀行的最新分析
在他的文章中格雷厄姆和多德斯維爾的超級投資者沃倫·巴菲特描述了股價並不總是理性地反映一家企業的價值。通過比較每股收益(EPS)和股價隨時間的變化,我們可以感受到投資者對一家公司的態度隨着時間的推移發生了怎樣的變化。
雖然股價在五年內下跌,但江蘇張家港農村商業銀行實際上成功地增加平均每年每股收益增長13%。因此,每股收益似乎並不能很好地指導人們理解市場對股票的估值。也有可能,此前市場非常樂觀,因此儘管每股收益有所改善,但該股仍令人失望。
由於每股收益增長和股價下跌之間缺乏相關性,因此有必要看看其他指標,試圖瞭解股價走勢。
與股價形成對比的是,在這五年期間,營收實際上以每年12%的速度增長。對營收和收益進行更詳細的審查,可能會解釋股價低迷的原因,也可能解釋不了;可能會有機會。
下圖顯示了收益和收入隨時間的變化情況(如果您點擊該圖,您可以看到更多詳細信息)。
深圳證交所:002839收益和收入增長2022年10月21日
我們知道,江蘇張家港農村商業銀行最近提高了底線,但未來會是什麼樣子?你可以在這裏看到分析師對江蘇張家港農村商業銀行的預測互動未來利潤預估圖表。
那股息呢?
除了衡量股價回報外,投資者還應考慮總股東回報(TSR)。雖然股價回報只反映股價的變動,但TSR包括股息的價值(假設股息再投資),以及任何折價集資或分拆所帶來的利益。可以説,TSR更全面地描繪了一隻股票產生的回報。我們注意到,江蘇張家港農村商業銀行過去5年的TSR為-55%,好於上述股價回報率。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!
不同的視角
雖然虧損從來都不是好事,但江蘇張家港農村商業銀行的股東可以感到欣慰的是,包括股息在內,他們過去12個月8.8%的虧損沒有市場虧損17%左右那麼糟糕。更令人擔憂的是9%的年利率。在過去的五年裏,虧損給股東帶來了損失。雖然虧損正在放緩,但我們懷疑有多少股東對該股感到滿意。跟蹤股價的長期表現總是很有趣的。但要更好地理解江蘇張家港農村商業銀行,還需要考慮許多其他因素。例如,考慮一下風險。每家公司都有它們,我們已經發現1江蘇張家港市農村商業銀行警示標誌你應該知道。
當然了江蘇張家港農村商業銀行可能不是最值得買入的股票。所以你可能想看看這個免費成長型股票的集合。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在CN交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。