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Top Spring International Holdings (HKG:3688 Shareholders Incur Further Losses as Stock Declines 30% This Week, Taking Five-year Losses to 83%

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 29, 2022 19:15

Long term investing is the way to go, but that doesn't mean you should hold every stock forever. We really hate to see fellow investors lose their hard-earned money. Anyone who held Top Spring International Holdings Limited (HKG:3688) for five years would be nursing their metaphorical wounds since the share price dropped 86% in that time. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 40%. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

Since Top Spring International Holdings has shed HK$459m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

View our latest analysis for Top Spring International Holdings

Top Spring International Holdings isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

Over half a decade Top Spring International Holdings reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 13% for each year. That puts it in an unattractive cohort, to put it mildly. So it's not that strange that the share price dropped 13% per year in that period. We don't think this is a particularly promising picture. Ironically, that behavior could create an opportunity for the contrarian investor - but only if there are good reasons to predict a brighter future.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growthSEHK:3688 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 29th 2022

Take a more thorough look at Top Spring International Holdings' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Top Spring International Holdings' share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Top Spring International Holdings' TSR, which was a 83% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 25% in the twelve months, Top Spring International Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 40%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 13% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Top Spring International Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Top Spring International Holdings has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

But note: Top Spring International Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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