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Hillenbrand's (NYSE:HI) Three-year Total Shareholder Returns Outpace the Underlying Earnings Growth

Simply Wall St ·  09/29 20:45

Hillenbrand, Inc. (NYSE:HI) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 13% in the last month. In contrast the stock is up over the last three years. In that time, it is up 28%, which isn't bad, but not amazing either.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 6.5%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Hillenbrand

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Hillenbrand was able to grow its EPS at 9.9% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. We note that the 9% yearly (average) share price gain isn't too far from the EPS growth rate. Coincidence? Probably not. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Au contraire, the share price change has arguably mimicked the EPS growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growthNYSE:HI Earnings Per Share Growth September 29th 2022

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Hillenbrand's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Hillenbrand, it has a TSR of 38% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While it's never nice to take a loss, Hillenbrand shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 12% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 19%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 1.2%, each year, over five years. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Hillenbrand .

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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