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Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About MDU Resources Group, Inc. (NYSE:MDU)?

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 28, 2022 13:25

With its stock down 12% over the past month, it is easy to disregard MDU Resources Group (NYSE:MDU). However, stock prices are usually driven by a company's financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. Particularly, we will be paying attention to MDU Resources Group's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

View our latest analysis for MDU Resources Group

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for MDU Resources Group is:

9.7% = US$328m ÷ US$3.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.10 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

MDU Resources Group's Earnings Growth And 9.7% ROE

At first glance, MDU Resources Group's ROE doesn't look very promising. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 9.7%, we may spare it some thought. Even so, MDU Resources Group has shown a fairly decent growth in its net income which grew at a rate of 9.2%. Considering the moderately low ROE, it is quite possible that there might be some other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

We then compared MDU Resources Group's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 12% in the same period, which is a bit concerning.

past-earnings-growthNYSE:MDU Past Earnings Growth September 28th 2022

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if MDU Resources Group is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is MDU Resources Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

MDU Resources Group has a healthy combination of a moderate three-year median payout ratio of 46% (or a retention ratio of 54%) and a respectable amount of growth in earnings as we saw above, meaning that the company has been making efficient use of its profits.

Additionally, MDU Resources Group has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 41% of its profits over the next three years. However, MDU Resources Group's ROE is predicted to rise to 12% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that MDU Resources Group certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Namely, its respectable earnings growth, which it achieved due to it retaining most of its profits. However, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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