In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks , it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (NYSE:PK), since the last five years saw the share price fall 59%. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 44% in the last year. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 21% in a month. But this could be related to poor market conditions -- stocks are down 11% in the same time.
Since Park Hotels & Resorts has shed US$558m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
Check out our latest analysis for Park Hotels & Resorts
Park Hotels & Resorts isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
In the last five years Park Hotels & Resorts saw its revenue shrink by 19% per year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. It seems appropriate, then, that the share price slid about 10% annually during that time. It's fair to say most investors don't like to invest in loss making companies with falling revenue. You'd want to research this company pretty thoroughly before buying, it looks a bit too risky for us.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).NYSE:PK Earnings and Revenue Growth September 28th 2022
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. If you are thinking of buying or selling Park Hotels & Resorts stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Park Hotels & Resorts, it has a TSR of -47% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 21% in the twelve months, Park Hotels & Resorts shareholders did even worse, losing 44% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 8% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Park Hotels & Resorts you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.