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Here's Why We Think National Fuel Gas (NYSE:NFG) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 23, 2022 09:11

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks' without any revenue, let alone profit. Sometimes these stories can cloud the minds of investors, leading them to invest with their emotions rather than on the merit of good company fundamentals. A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up.

In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like National Fuel Gas (NYSE:NFG), which has not only revenues, but also profits. Now this is not to say that the company presents the best investment opportunity around, but profitability is a key component to success in business.

See our latest analysis for National Fuel Gas

How Quickly Is National Fuel Gas Increasing Earnings Per Share?

If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. Therefore, there are plenty of investors who like to buy shares in companies that are growing EPS. National Fuel Gas managed to grow EPS by 16% per year, over three years. That's a good rate of growth, if it can be sustained.

Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. National Fuel Gas maintained stable EBIT margins over the last year, all while growing revenue 26% to US$2.1b. That's a real positive.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

earnings-and-revenue-historyNYSE:NFG Earnings and Revenue History September 23rd 2022

Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for National Fuel Gas.

Are National Fuel Gas Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Owing to the size of National Fuel Gas, we wouldn't expect insiders to hold a significant proportion of the company. But thanks to their investment in the company, it's pleasing to see that there are still incentives to align their actions with the shareholders. We note that their impressive stake in the company is worth US$103m. Investors will appreciate management having this amount of skin in the game as it shows their commitment to the company's future.

While it's always good to see some strong conviction in the company from insiders through heavy investment, it's also important for shareholders to ask if management compensation policies are reasonable. A brief analysis of the CEO compensation suggests they are. For companies with market capitalisations between US$4.0b and US$12b, like National Fuel Gas, the median CEO pay is around US$8.4m.

The National Fuel Gas CEO received US$7.0m in compensation for the year ending September 2021. That is actually below the median for CEO's of similarly sized companies. CEO remuneration levels are not the most important metric for investors, but when the pay is modest, that does support enhanced alignment between the CEO and the ordinary shareholders. It can also be a sign of a culture of integrity, in a broader sense.

Is National Fuel Gas Worth Keeping An Eye On?

One positive for National Fuel Gas is that it is growing EPS. That's nice to see. The growth of EPS may be the eye-catching headline for National Fuel Gas, but there's more to bring joy for shareholders. With company insiders aligning themselves considerably with the company's success and modest CEO compensation, there's no arguments that this is a stock worth looking into. Even so, be aware that National Fuel Gas is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

The beauty of investing is that you can invest in almost any company you want. But if you prefer to focus on stocks that have demonstrated insider buying, here is a list of companies with insider buying in the last three months.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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