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China Tontine Wines Group (HKG:389) Is Posting Healthy Earnings, But It Is Not All Good News

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 22, 2022 18:55

Despite posting strong earnings, China Tontine Wines Group Limited's (HKG:389) stock didn't move much over the last week. We decided to have a deeper look, and we believe that investors might be worried about several concerning factors that we found.

View our latest analysis for China Tontine Wines Group

earnings-and-revenue-historySEHK:389 Earnings and Revenue History September 22nd 2022

One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. China Tontine Wines Group expanded the number of shares on issue by 41% over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. You can see a chart of China Tontine Wines Group's EPS by clicking here.

How Is Dilution Impacting China Tontine Wines Group's Earnings Per Share (EPS)?

Three years ago, China Tontine Wines Group lost money. Zooming in to the last year, we still can't talk about growth rates coherently, since it made a loss last year. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. So you can see that the dilution has had a fairly significant impact on shareholders.

If China Tontine Wines Group's EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of China Tontine Wines Group.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Alongside that dilution, it's also important to note that China Tontine Wines Group's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥13m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. We can see that China Tontine Wines Group's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to June 2022. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

Our Take On China Tontine Wines Group's Profit Performance

In its last report China Tontine Wines Group benefitted from unusual items which boosted its profit, which could make the profit seem better than it really is on a sustainable basis. And furthermore, it went and issued plenty of new shares, ensuring that each shareholder (who did not tip more money in) now owns a smaller proportion of the company. Considering all this we'd argue China Tontine Wines Group's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 3 warning signs with China Tontine Wines Group, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Our examination of China Tontine Wines Group has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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