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STAG Industrial, Inc.'s (NYSE:STAG) Stock Has Shown Weakness Lately But Financial Prospects Look Decent: Is The Market Wrong?

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 21, 2022 06:20

With its stock down 9.1% over the past month, it is easy to disregard STAG Industrial (NYSE:STAG). However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to STAG Industrial's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for STAG Industrial

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for STAG Industrial is:

6.5% = US$225m ÷ US$3.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.07 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of STAG Industrial's Earnings Growth And 6.5% ROE

On the face of it, STAG Industrial's ROE is not much to talk about. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 6.6%, we may spare it some thought. Moreover, we are quite pleased to see that STAG Industrial's net income grew significantly at a rate of 39% over the last five years. Taking into consideration that the ROE is not particularly high, we reckon that there could also be other factors at play which could be influencing the company's growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

As a next step, we compared STAG Industrial's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 11%.

past-earnings-growthNYSE:STAG Past Earnings Growth September 21st 2022

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about STAG Industrial's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is STAG Industrial Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

STAG Industrial has a very high three-year median payout ratio of 79%. This means that it has only 21% of its income left to reinvest into its business. However, it's not unusual to see a REIT with such a high payout ratio mainly due to statutory requirements. In spite of this, the company was able to grow its earnings significantly, as we saw above.

Additionally, STAG Industrial has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 68%. Still, forecasts suggest that STAG Industrial's future ROE will drop to 3.9% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Conclusion

In total, it does look like STAG Industrial has some positive aspects to its business. While no doubt its earnings growth is pretty substantial, we do feel that the reinvestment rate is pretty low, meaning, the earnings growth number could have been significantly higher had the company been retaining more of its profits. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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