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Earnings Growth of 0.8% Over 5 Years Hasn't Been Enough to Translate Into Positive Returns for Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical (SZSE:002749) Shareholders

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 19, 2022 19:30

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002749) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 21% over a half decade. Even worse, it's down 11% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. However, we note the price may have been impacted by the broader market, which is down 7.3% in the same time period.

After losing 8.8% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

See our latest analysis for Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 4.1% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

Given EPS is up and the share price is down, it's clear the market is more concerned about the business than it was previously. That said, if EPS continues to increase, it seems very likely the share price will get a boost, in the long term.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growthSZSE:002749 Earnings Per Share Growth September 19th 2022

This free interactive report on Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical, it has a TSR of -12% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical returned a loss of 4.1% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 16%. Given the total loss of 2% per year over five years, it seems returns have deteriorated in the last twelve months. Whilst Baron Rothschild does tell the investor "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", buyers would need to examine the data carefully to be comfortable that the business itself is sound. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored) .

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CN exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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