share_log
Hi,
moomoo ID:0
Log Out
English
Back
  • English
  • 中文繁体
  • 中文简体

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of IRay Technology Company Limited (SHSE:688301)

Simply Wall St ·  09/19 11:55

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of iRay Technology Company Limited (SHSE:688301) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for iRay Technology

Is iRay Technology Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥390.0m CN¥728.0m CN¥1.02b CN¥1.31b CN¥1.59b CN¥1.84b CN¥2.06b CN¥2.26b CN¥2.43b CN¥2.58b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 39.83% Est @ 28.85% Est @ 21.17% Est @ 15.79% Est @ 12.02% Est @ 9.39% Est @ 7.54% Est @ 6.25%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7% CN¥362 CN¥628 CN¥815 CN¥975 CN¥1.1k CN¥1.2k CN¥1.2k CN¥1.2k CN¥1.2k CN¥1.2k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥10b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥2.6b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (7.7%– 3.2%) = CN¥60b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥60b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)10= CN¥29b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥39b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥525, the company appears about fair value at a 1.2% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcfSHSE:688301 Discounted Cash Flow September 19th 2022

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at iRay Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.900. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For iRay Technology, there are three important elements you should explore:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for iRay Technology that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 688301's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SHSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

This presentation is for informational and educational use only and is not a recommendation or endorsement of any particular investment or investment strategy. Investment information provided in this content is general in nature, strictly for illustrative purposes, and may not be appropriate for all investors. It is provided without respect to individual investors’ financial sophistication, financial situation, investment objectives, investing time horizon, or risk tolerance. You should consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to your relevant personal circumstances before making any investment decisions. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. Moomoo makes no representation or warranty as to its adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content.

Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc.
In the U.S., investment products and services available through the moomoo app are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and a member of Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)/Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC).
In Singapore, investment products and services available through the moomoo app are offered through Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd. regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd. is a Capital Markets Services Licence (License No. CMS101000) holder with the Exempt Financial Adviser Status. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
In Australia, financial products and services available through the moomoo app are provided by Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, an Australian Financial Services Licensee (AFSL No. 224663) regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC). Please read and understand our Financial Services Guide, Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy and other disclosure documents which are available on our websites https://www.futuau.com and https://www.moomoo.com/au. Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd. and Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd are affiliated companies.