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Investors Five-year Losses Grow to 49% as the Stock Sheds HK$498m This Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 7, 2022 19:36

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited (HKG:308) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 52% over a half decade. Furthermore, it's down 12% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 12% in the same period.

With the stock having lost 6.3% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

View our latest analysis for China Travel International Investment Hong Kong

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over five years China Travel International Investment Hong Kong's earnings per share dropped significantly, falling to a loss, with the share price also lower. At present it's hard to make valid comparisons between EPS and the share price. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growthSEHK:308 Earnings Per Share Growth September 7th 2022

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between China Travel International Investment Hong Kong's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. China Travel International Investment Hong Kong's TSR of was a loss of 49% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that China Travel International Investment Hong Kong shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 12% over one year. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 8% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - China Travel International Investment Hong Kong has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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